Patterns of Climate Variability

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This grant research involves the application of a variety of statistical analysis tools and dynamical insight to investigate climate variability on time scales ranging from weeks to decades. The analysis will be primarily based on observational data, including model assimilated datasets such as the NCEP and ECMWF Reanalyses. Of particular interest are the principal patterns or 'modes' of variability that account for disproportionately large fractions of the variance of the pressure field, the forced pattern in the year-to-year variability observed in association with the ENSO cycle, and fluctuations in the zonally symmetric (or annular) component of the atmospheric general circulation. The major goals of the research are:(1) to formulate a more concise and dynamically based classification of these leading modes of variability;(2) to better understand the nonlinear interactions by which the circulation anomalies associated with one mode influence the structure of other modes;(3) to document the widespread impacts of these modes upon surface weather, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, aerosols, ocean color, and land vegetation; (4) to elucidate their role in producing the pronounced high latitude warming and other climatic trends that have been observed during the past few decades;(5) more generally, to determine whether the climate trends of the past few decades are large enough to account for the large environmental changes that have been observed over Alaska and other polar and sub-polar regions.The project will directly support the training of graduate students and indirectly contribute to the mentoring of postdoctoral research associates. Project deliverables include an on-line atlas of basic general circulation statistics and a monograph on the atmospheric general circulation.This research is important because of its educational impacts and also because it provides scientific information relevant to weather and climate prediction.