P2C2: Collaborative Research: Past Ocean-Atmosphere Variability from Spatiotemporal Patterns of North Atlantic Climate During the Common Era

北大西洋的气候对邻近的北美和欧洲的人口和生态系统产生了深远影响。预计该项目将有助于增进对北大西洋地区年代际和数十年尺度气候变异性及其时空模式的性质和原因的了解，以便进行建模和预测。在这一时间尺度上加强对内部气候系统变异性的了解，对于十年尺度的预测以及对区域和全球气温趋势的人为因素的可靠检测和归属至关重要。该奖项将通过Lamont Doherty地球天文台正在进行的学生实习计划以及伍兹霍尔海洋研究所(WHOI)的合作和客座学生计划，为学生提供早期研究体验。研究人员将利用最新版本的旧世界干旱地图集(Owda，代表欧洲、北非和中东)和更新的、完全兼容的北大西洋干旱地图集(NADA)进行分析，旨在确定北大西洋盆地两侧大陆之间夏季水文气候变化的耦合模式。这将使用包括奇异值分解(SVD)在内的多变量工具来识别简单的时间域耦合模式。还将使用频域技术--带奇异值分解的多重锥化方法(MTM-SVD)来研究带限相位相干模的存在。研究小组试图通过将这些模式的预测系数与覆盖北大西洋盆地和更广泛的全球区域(例如，海平面气压或SLP、海表面温度或SST)的气候数据场进行比较，找出干旱地图集中已确定的耦合模式的可能原因。研究小组将利用Owda和NADA提供的夏季水文气候的扩展记录，将已识别的强迫投射到中世纪，以产生已识别的气候强迫在过去1000年中的变化和变化的一阶估计；此外，研究人员将把Owda/NADA耦合模式的千年气候强迫预测与CMIP3/CMIP5耦合气候模式运行的相关气候场及其特征变化模式进行比较，以确定数据和模型的一致程度。

The climate of the North Atlantic profoundly impacts human populations and ecosystems in adjacent North America and Europe. It is anticipated that this project will help improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal- and multi-decadal scale climate variability and its spatiotemporal patterns for the North Atlantic sector for modeling and predictive purposes. An enhanced understanding of internal climate system variability at this time scale is critical for decadal-scale prediction, as well as robust detection and attribution of the anthropogenic component of regional and global temperature trends. This award will support early research experiences for students through an ongoing student internship program at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and co-operative and Guest student programs at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The researchers will utilize the newest version of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA, representing Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) and an updated and fully compatible version of the North Atlantic Drought Atlas (NADA) in analyses designed to identify coupled modes of summer hydro-climate variability between continents on opposite sides of the North Atlantic Basin. This will be accomplished using multivariate tools including singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify simple time domain coupled modes. The existence of band-limited phase-coherent modes will also be investigated using the Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency domain technique. The research team seeks to identify the likely causes of the identified coupled modes in the drought atlases by comparing the projection coefficients of those modes against fields of climate data covering the North Atlantic Basin and for more extensive global regions (e.g., sea-level pressure or SLP, sea surface temperature or SST). The research team will project the identified forcings back to medieval times using the extended records of summer hydro-climate provided by the OWDA and NADA to produce first-order estimates of how the identified climate forcings have varied and changed over the past millennium; andFurthermore, the researchers will compare the millennium-length climate forcing projections of the OWDA/NADA coupled modes against relevant climate fields and their characteristic modes of variability from the suite of CMIP3/CMIP5 coupled climate model runs to determine the degree to which data and models agree.