P2C2: Collaborative Research: Past Ocean-Atmosphere Variability from Spatiotemporal Patterns of North Atlantic Climate During the Common Era

P2C2：合作研究：公元纪元北大西洋气候时空模式的过去海洋-大气变化

• 批准号: 1501856
• 负责人: Kevin Anchukaitis
• 金额: $ 9.35万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-07-01 至 2016-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1501856&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: P2C2; Collaborative; Research; Past; Ocean

The climate of the North Atlantic profoundly impacts human populations and ecosystems in adjacent North America and Europe. It is anticipated that this project will help improve understanding of the nature and causes of decadal- and multi-decadal scale climate variability and its spatiotemporal patterns for the North Atlantic sector for modeling and predictive purposes. An enhanced understanding of internal climate system variability at this time scale is critical for decadal-scale prediction, as well as robust detection and attribution of the anthropogenic component of regional and global temperature trends. This award will support early research experiences for students through an ongoing student internship program at Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory and co-operative and Guest student programs at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). The researchers will utilize the newest version of the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA, representing Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) and an updated and fully compatible version of the North Atlantic Drought Atlas (NADA) in analyses designed to identify coupled modes of summer hydro-climate variability between continents on opposite sides of the North Atlantic Basin. This will be accomplished using multivariate tools including singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify simple time domain coupled modes. The existence of band-limited phase-coherent modes will also be investigated using the Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD), a frequency domain technique. The research team seeks to identify the likely causes of the identified coupled modes in the drought atlases by comparing the projection coefficients of those modes against fields of climate data covering the North Atlantic Basin and for more extensive global regions (e.g., sea-level pressure or SLP, sea surface temperature or SST). The research team will project the identified forcings back to medieval times using the extended records of summer hydro-climate provided by the OWDA and NADA to produce first-order estimates of how the identified climate forcings have varied and changed over the past millennium; andFurthermore, the researchers will compare the millennium-length climate forcing projections of the OWDA/NADA coupled modes against relevant climate fields and their characteristic modes of variability from the suite of CMIP3/CMIP5 coupled climate model runs to determine the degree to which data and models agree.

北大西洋的气候对邻近的北美和欧洲的人口和生态系统产生了深远的影响。预计这一项目将有助于更好地了解北大西洋地区十年和多年尺度气候变率及其时空模式的性质和原因，以便进行建模和预测。在这一时间尺度上加强对内部气候系统变率的了解，对于十年尺度的预测以及对区域和全球温度趋势的人为因素的可靠探测和归因至关重要。该奖项将通过拉蒙多尔蒂地球观测站正在进行的学生实习计划和伍兹霍尔海洋研究所（WHOI）的合作和客座学生计划，为学生提供早期研究经验。 研究人员将利用旧世界干旱地图集（OWDA，代表欧洲，北非和中东）的最新版本和北大西洋干旱地图集（NADA）的更新和完全兼容版本进行分析，旨在确定北大西洋盆地两侧大陆之间夏季水文气候变化的耦合模式。这将使用多变量工具，包括奇异值分解（SVD）来识别简单的时域耦合模式。带限相位相干模式的存在也将使用多锥度方法与奇异值分解（MTM-SVD），频域技术进行研究。该研究小组试图通过将这些模式的投影系数与覆盖北大西洋盆地和更广泛的全球区域（例如，海平面压力或SLP，海表面温度或SST）。 该研究小组将利用OWDA和NADA提供的夏季水文气候的详细记录，将已确定的强迫作用追溯到中世纪，以产生关于已确定的气候强迫作用在过去千年中如何变化和改变的一级估计;而且，研究人员将比较OWDA的千年气候强迫预测，NADA耦合模态与CMIP 3/CMIP 5耦合气候模式运行的相关气候场及其特征变率模态的对比，以确定数据和模式的一致程度。