International Funding, Local Non-Governmental Organizations, and Electoral Outcomes

在过去的几十年里，非政府组织(NGO)的增长是爆炸性的。对国际非政府组织(在多个国家开展业务的组织)的保守估计，这一数字为2.9万。当地团体的增长更加明显。世界观察研究所估计，美国有200万个非政府组织，其中70%的非政府组织成立不到30年。在短短四年的时间里(1990-94年)，欧洲联盟通过非政府组织提供的救济援助的比例从47%增加到67%。非政府组织现在支付的资金比世界银行还多。非政府组织参与了一场悄无声息的革命：这场革命对民间社会和社会资本的发展具有重要影响。也许他们最重要的贡献在于他们在商品、服务和公民参与方面提供的替代方案。尽管它们的增长和重要性，我们对它们对国内政治的影响知之甚少。非政府组织的理论、它们的国际联系以及它们对政治的影响可以分为三个视角：自由主义、新自由主义和马克思主义者。自由派人士认为，流向当地非政府组织的国际资源为公民提供了必要的手段，以克服或绕过未能提供公共产品和服务的软弱和无效的政治机构。有了外部资金，以前被排除在外的社会阶层可以增加他们的政治影响力。新自由主义者将非政府组织视为高效的商品和服务提供者。他们辩称，非政府组织及其外国捐赠者在政治上是中立的；他们只是承担了以前由一个无法有效提供商品和服务的国家承担的责任。马克思主义者认为，来自国外的资源腐败了当地的非政府组织。一旦当地非政府组织开始更多地依赖海外资源，而不是取得政治胜利，它们很快就会失去最初的目标，最终使其成员复员。我们提出了第一个以数量为导向的关于非政府组织、外国资金及其对政治影响的实证研究。具体地说，我们估计了非政府组织获得外国资金对投票行为的影响。我们的提案要求提供资金，以收集财务数据和选举数据，并进行档案研究。我们的目标是由世界银行在巴西的两个州：隆多尼亚和马托格罗索州的两个大型项目提供的自然实验。巴西的这两个州地处偏远，人口稀少。因此，世界银行的这两个项目代表了绝大多数外国资源，使我们能够准确地追踪外部资金的分配情况。这项试验还有一个额外的方面：每个项目都向地方非政府组织和两个州政府支付资金。由于每个项目的资源都分配给了政府机构和非政府组织，我们可以测试这两种实施方法是否会对选举结果产生不同的影响。除了收集选举和财务数据外，我们还进行档案研究，以确定每个非政府组织政治化的程度。每个收到资金的非政府组织都被要求提交一份简要的历史和目的说明。从这一描述中，我们可以获得关于该非政府组织与政治的关系有多密切的重要信息。通过将资金分配与政治化程度相互作用，我们可以区分来自理论文献的几个假设。这项拟议的研究不仅旨在确定外国捐赠者、非政府组织和政治之间是否存在经验联系，而且还旨在解释原因。

The growth of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has been explosive over the last few decades. A conservative estimate of international NGOs (groups with operations in more than one country) puts the number at 29,000. The growth of local groups is even more pronounced. The World Watch institute estimates that there are two million NGOs in the United States, 70% of which are less than 30 years old. In a short four-year period (1990-94), the percentage of European Union relief aid channeled through NGOs grew from 47% to 67%. NGOs now disburse more money than the World Bank. NGOs are involved in a quiet revolution: a revolution that holds important implications for the development of civil society and social capital. Perhaps their most important contribution lies in the alternatives that they provide in terms of goods, services, and civic engagement. Despite their growth and importance, we know very little about their impact on domestic politics. Theories of NGOs, their international connections, and their impact on politics can be categorized into three perspectives: liberal, neo-liberal, and Marxist. Liberals argue that the flow of international resources to local NGOs provides the means necessary for citizens to overcome or bypass weak and ineffective political institutions that fail to provide public goods and services. With external funding, previously excluded segments of society can increase their political influence. Neo-liberals see NGOs as efficient providers of goods and services. They argue that NGOs and their foreign benefactors are politically neutral; they merely take on responsibilities previously held by a state unable to provide the goods and services efficiently. Marxists argue that resources from abroad corrupt local NGOs. Once local NGOs come to depend more on resources from abroad than on achieving political victory, they quickly lose sight of their original goals, eventually demobilizing their membership. We propose the first quantitatively oriented empirical study of NGOs, foreign funding, and their impact on politics. Specifically, we estimate the impact of NGO access to foreign funding on voting behavior. Our proposal requests funds to collect financial data and electoral data, and to conduct archival research. We target a natural experiment provided by two massive World Bank projects in two Brazilian states: Rondonia and Mato Grosso. The two Brazilian states are remote and sparsely populated. Consequently, the two World Bank projects represent the vast majority of foreign resources, allowing us to trace accurately the distribution of external funds. There is an additional dimension to the experiment: each project disburses funds to local NGOs as well as to the two state governments. Because resources in each project are allocated to government agencies and NGOs, we can test whether the two methods of implementation affected electoral outcomes differently. In addition to collecting electoral and financial data, we conduct archival research to determine the degree to which each NGO is politicized. Every NGO that receives money is required to submit a brief history and statement of purpose. From that description we can obtain important information on how closely the NGO is tied to politics. By interacting the allocation of funds with the degree of politicization, we can distinguish among several hypotheses derived from the theoretical literature. The proposed study is designed not only to determine is an empirical connection exists among foreign donors, NGOs, and politics, but also to explain why.