Observations, Physics and Modeling of the Phase-Locking of the El Nino Southern Oscillation to the Calendar Year

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This project will address the tendency of El Nino to exhibit persistence properties which are phase-locked to the calendar year. It is hypothesized that this locking may arise in response to the amplification of Rossby waves by the seasonal mean flow. The dynamics of this locking to the seasonal cycle are to be studied by employing observational data and a simple atmospheric model. The aim is to incorporate the mechanics of this phenomenon into an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model, in order that is may represent the major calendar-year phase-locking seen in nature.El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate fluctuations influence agriculture, water resources, fisheries, the number of hurricanes and wildfires, heating oil consumption, and the prevalence of famine and disease in certain regions. Increased understanding of these fluctuations will probably benefit many people in many countries.