Observations, Physics and Modeling of the Phase-Locking of the El Nino Southern Oscillation to the Calendar Year

厄尔尼诺南方涛动与历年锁相的观测、物理和建模

• 批准号: 0326799
• 负责人: Allan Clarke
• 金额: $ 35.3万
• 依托单位: Florida State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2007-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0326799&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Observations; Physics; Modeling; Phase; Locking

This project will address the tendency of El Nino to exhibit persistence properties which are phase-locked to the calendar year. It is hypothesized that this locking may arise in response to the amplification of Rossby waves by the seasonal mean flow. The dynamics of this locking to the seasonal cycle are to be studied by employing observational data and a simple atmospheric model. The aim is to incorporate the mechanics of this phenomenon into an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model, in order that is may represent the major calendar-year phase-locking seen in nature.El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate fluctuations influence agriculture, water resources, fisheries, the number of hurricanes and wildfires, heating oil consumption, and the prevalence of famine and disease in certain regions. Increased understanding of these fluctuations will probably benefit many people in many countries.

这个项目将探讨厄尔尼诺现象表现出与日历年相锁定的持久性的趋势。据推测，这种锁定可能会出现在响应季节性平均流量的Rossby波的放大。将利用观测数据和一个简单的大气模型来研究这种锁定到季节循环的动态。目的是将这一现象的机制纳入一个中间耦合海洋-大气模式，以便它可以代表自然界中看到的主要的一年一次的相位锁定，厄尔尼诺/南方涛动（ENSO）气候波动影响农业，水资源，渔业，飓风和野火的数量，取暖油的消费，以及某些地区的饥荒和疾病的流行。加深对这些波动的理解可能会使许多国家的许多人受益。