SGER: Invasion and Establishment Dynamics of West Nile Virus in the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico, Colorado and Texas.

这个SGER项目将沿着德克萨斯州、新墨西哥州和科罗拉多州的里约热内卢格兰德山谷近800公里的南北梯度取样蚊子种群和西尼罗河病毒的建立。2002年夏季密集采样未发现感染蚊虫，预测2003年夏季将在里约热内卢Grande地区形成西尼罗河病毒。该项目的目标是：(1)记录西尼罗病毒（WNV）在里约热内卢大盆地蚊子种群中的初始建立模式，(2)确定西尼罗病毒在初始建立事件后的传播速度和方向，(3)确定主要环境因素(包括气候动力学，鸟类宿主种群丰度和分布，栖息地类别，(4)应用野外数据对GIS和数学扩散模型进行参数化，试图建立西尼罗河病毒持续扩张的预测能力。这个项目的智力价值在于，它有可能详细描述一种由鸟类和蚊子传播的病毒首次在大型河流生态系统（里约热内卢Grande）中定居的过程，并对其随后的传播进行数学理解。该项目成果的更广泛应用包括预测西尼罗河病毒在里约热内卢格兰德河和西南其他潜在河流中的年分布和强度的预测模型，以及对未来其他蚊媒疾病（例如登革热或裂谷热）传入北美的了解。

This SGER project will sample mosquito populations and West Nile Virus establishment along a nearly 800 km north-south gradient of the Rio Grande valley in Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. Intensive sampling in the summer of 2002 showed no infected mosquitoes, and it is predicted that WNV will become established in the Rio Grande region during the summer of 2003. The goals of this project are to (1) document the initial establishment patterns of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the Rio Grande Basin mosquito populations, (2) determine the rate and directions of spread of WNV subsequent to initial establishment events, (3) ascertain the predominant environmental factors (including climate dynamics, avian host population abundances and distributions, habitat classes, and human land use patterns) that drive the population dynamics of both mosquitoes and WNV occurrence, and (4) apply the field data to parameterize both GIS and mathematical dispersal models in an attempt to develop predictive capabilities for the continued expansion of WNV. The intellectual merit for this project lies in the potential to describe in detail the first colonization of an avian- and mosquito-borne virus into a large riverine ecosystem (the Rio Grande), and develop a mathematical understanding of its subsequent spread. The broader applications of the project results include predictive models for forecasting annual distributions and intensities of WNV in the Rio Grande and potentially other rivers of the Southwest, as well as an understanding for other future introductions of mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., dengue fever or Rift Valley fever) into North America.