The Changing Carbon Cycle-Contribution from Climate Variability

本项目采用NCEP再分析产品驱动的大气-陆地-海洋耦合碳模型，研究大气二氧化碳浓度年际变化较大的来源。这些波动是由海洋与大气之间以及大气与陆地之间碳交换的可变性引起的假设将得到检验。预计将对北半球碳汇的调节、二氧化碳对ENSO的响应以及气候变率的年代际模式如何表现为碳源和碳汇等问题有新的认识。这项研究解决了气候变化研究中不确定性的一个主要来源，并有望为科学界和公众提供有用的结果。

This project employs a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean carbon model, driven by NCEP reanalysis products, to investigate the sources of the large interannual variability in the concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The hypothesis that these fluctuations arise from variability in the exchange of carbon between the ocean and atmosphere, and between the atmosphere and the land, will be tested. Fresh insights into such problems as the modulation of the northern hemisphere carbon sink, the CO2 response to ENSO, and the way in which interdecadal modes of climate variability manifest themselves as carbon sources and sinks are anticipated. This research addresses a major source of uncertainty in climate change studies, and is expected to provide useful results to both the scientific community and general public.