The Intersection between climate change water resources and humans in the Arctic

白色淡水对北极人类的可持续发展至关重要。用于饮用或清洁的水可以促进健康或传播疾病。水支撑着用于维持生计的植物和动物。水阻碍或促进人们获得食物或住所。水一直是并将永远是北极人类文化不可或缺的一部分。在过去的30年里，北极的气候明显变暖，有证据表明，未来全球变暖将在极地显著放大。最近的研究表明，气候变化将对北极水文产生重大影响。水文循环的变化会影响地表水的存在和土壤中的热平衡。虽然初步证据表明，气候变化将对北极地区的水文循环产生重大影响，但几乎没有证据可以预测人类可用淡水的质量和数量可能会发生什么变化。关于水文变化将如何影响北极人类的健康、可持续性和文化的了解就更少了。这项拟议研究的总体目标是了解淡水在北极人类生活中的重要作用，它在最近的过去发生了怎样的变化，以及它在未来可能会发生什么变化。这项工作将建立一个模型，使我们能够预测气候引起的水文循环变化及其对水质和可获得性的影响。在这些数据的基础上，它将试图了解这些变化将如何影响北极人民的生活和文化。这项研究将在苏厄德半岛进行，那里的气候引起的水文循环变化已经很明显。虽然苏厄德半岛位于北极圈的南部，但它是变暖的北极的一个很好的类比。半岛北部和中部主要被连续的永久冻土覆盖，优势植被是草袜冻土带。该项目将利用社区互动、历史文献、实地观察、实验室实验和计算机建模。私人情报员在苏厄德半岛上进行研究具有丰富的经验，在物理和社会科学方面都有工作。这个项目的更广泛影响有两个方面。在区域范围内，它将采用一项公共宣传计划，以促进阿拉斯加村庄的水资源教育和意识。该项目将努力增加阿拉斯加原住民对本科生和研究生学习的参与度。通过将这一提议纳入阿拉斯加大学和苏厄德半岛一些村庄之间的现有教育基础设施，将实现外联工作。在全球范围内，这项研究的更广泛影响在于它对整个环极地北极的可采掘性。西沃德半岛位于连续多年冻土的南部边界。在这种环境下，永久冻土的轻微变化将对水文循环以及淡水的质量和可获得性造成长期的变化。如果气候继续变暖，永久冻土的南部边界将向北推进，最终影响到北极的所有人类。这一建议的学术价值在于建立了一种跨学科工作的模式，真正将物理科学和社会科学结合在一起。这个项目结合了一位文化人类学家、一位生物学家、一位水文学家和一位工程师的工作。这个项目的任何一个部分都不是独立的。为了了解气候引起的水文循环变化对人类的潜在影响，需要做两件事。首先，必须量化潜在的水文变化。这需要对一门物理科学进行区域尺度的建模。其次，社会科学对于刻画人类对资源的依赖和对潜在变化的反应是必要的。如果没有这两个目标的真正融合，人们就无法开始理解气候变化、水资源和北极人类之间的交集。虽然这项研究是关于水作为一种资源，但这种实验方法未来可能会扩展到其他资源。

0328686WhiteFreshwater is critical to the sustainability of humans in the Arctic. Water used for drinking or cleaning can promote good health or propagate disease. Water supports the plants and animals used for subsistence harvest. Water prevents or promotes access to food or shelter. Water has always been and will always be integral to the culture of humans in the Arctic. In the past 30 years, the climate in the Arctic has warmed appreciably and there is evidence for a significant polar amplification of global warming in the future. Recent studies suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on arctic hydrology. Changes in the hydrologic cycle will affect both the presence of surface water and the thermal balance in soil. While preliminary evidence suggests a changing climate will have a significant impact on the hydrologic cycle in arctic regions, very little evidence is available to predict how the quality and quantity of freshwater available to humans is likely to change. Even less is understood about how hydrologic changes will affect the health, sustainability, and culture of humans in the Arctic. The overall objective of the proposed research is to understand the vital role of freshwater in the lives of humans in the Arctic, how it has changed in the recent past, and how it is likely to change in the future. This work will build a model that will allow us to predict climate-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle and their effects on water quality and availability. On the basis of this data, it will attempt to understand how these changes will impact the life and culture of Arctic peoples. This study will take place on the Seward Peninsula, where climate-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle are already apparent. Although the Seward Peninsula is south of the Arctic Circle, it is a very good analogue for a warmer Arctic. It is predominantly underlain by continuous permafrost in the northern and central peninsula and the predominant vegetation is tussock tundra. This project will draw upon community interaction, historical documentation, field observations, laboratory experimentation, and computer modeling. The PIs have extensive experience conducting research on the Seward Peninsula, working both in the physical and social sciences. The broader impact of this project are two fold. Regionally it will employ a public outreach program to promote water resource education and awareness in Alaskan villages. This project will involve efforts to increase participation of Alaska Natives in undergraduate and graduate studies. Outreach will be accomplished by integrating this proposal into existing education infrastructure between the University of Alaska and some Seward Peninsula villages. Globally, the broader impact of this study lies in its extractability to the entire circumpolar Arctic. The Seward Peninsula lies at the southern boundary of continuous permafrost. In this environment, slight changes in the permafrost will cause long lasting changes to the hydrologic cycle and the quality and availability of freshwater. If the climate continues to warm, the southern boundary of permafrost will advance northward, eventually impacting all humans in the Arctic. The intellectual merit of this proposal lies in the building of a model for interdisciplinary work that truly integrates the physical and social sciences. This project couples the work of a cultural anthropologist, a biologist, a hydrologist and an engineer. No one part of this project is independent. In order to understand the potential impacts of climate-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle on humans, two things are required. First, the potential hydrologic changes must be quantified. This requires regional scale modeling of a physical science. Second, the social science is necessary to characterize the human dependence on the resource and response to potential changes. Without the true integration of these two objectives one cannot begin to understand the intersection between climate change, water resources, and humans in the Arctic. While this study is on water as a resource, this experimental approach could be extended to other resources in the future.