Integrated Physical-Social-Economic System Dynamics Modeling for Managing Extreme Events Induced Risk on the U.S.-Mexico Border Crossing Infrastructure

用于管理美国-墨西哥边境口岸基础设施的极端事件引发风险的综合物理-社会-经济系统动力学建模

• 批准号: 0332001
• 负责人: Soheil Nazarian
• 金额: $ 44.01万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at El Paso
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-10-01 至 2007-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0332001&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrated; Physical; Social; Economic; System

Land border ports of entry are critical in both national and regional terms. By offering legal and safe crossing points, they help integrate people and economies between nations. Yet they also apply important controls and regulations. The border-crossing infrastructure, regional traffic flows, local economy, and broader societal activities in the region are highly interdependent in nature. The flows of people and trade in the system are largely determined by the capacity and efficiency of the transportation and inspections infrastructure. These interactions, which may include feedback adjustments to maintain equilibrium or a cascade of successive failures, have not been modeled in an integrated fashion and have not been well understood, making understanding the overall impacts of extreme events difficult. Extreme-event-induced sudden disturbances or security policy changes in one system often lead to cascading and undesirable effects on the others. The challenges of capturing the impact propagation are due to nonlinearity, stochasticity, and time lags of system dynamical interactions. This project will develop an integrated border infrastructure risk management framework, which entails two objectives. The first objective is to develop a System Dynamic (SD) based framework and a set of integrated models for the border physical-social-economic system. These models will serve as tools for understanding border system dynamics, predicting the impacts of risk reduction policies, evaluating mitigation strategies, and modeling recovery processes. The second is to develop a risk assessment and mitigation framework and models for the border region, with a particular emphasis on assessing the criticality of border crossing infrastructure systems, evaluating border security policy and operations, designing information dissemination and public and business preparedness schemes, and identifying transportation and inspection system operations strategies.

陆地边境入境口岸对国家和区域都至关重要。通过提供法律的和安全的过境点，他们帮助国家之间的人民和经济一体化。然而，它们也实施重要的控制和条例。 该区域的过境基础设施、区域交通流量、地方经济和更广泛的社会活动在性质上高度相互依赖。 该系统的人员流动和贸易在很大程度上取决于运输和检查基础设施的能力和效率。 这些相互作用可能包括维持平衡的反馈调整或连续失败的级联，尚未以集成的方式进行建模，也没有得到很好的理解，使得理解极端事件的整体影响变得困难。极端事件引起的突发性扰动或安全政策的变化往往会对其他系统产生连锁反应和不良影响。 捕捉冲击传播的挑战是由于系统动力学相互作用的非线性、随机性和时滞。 该项目将制定一个综合边境基础设施风险管理框架，其中包括两个目标。第一个目标是开发一个系统动力学（SD）为基础的框架和一套综合模型的边界物理-社会-经济系统。这些模型将作为理解边界系统动态、预测降低风险政策的影响、评估缓解战略和建模恢复过程的工具。第二，为边境地区制定风险评估和缓解框架和模型，特别强调评估过境基础设施系统的重要性，评价边境安全政策和行动，设计信息传播和公共及企业准备计划，并确定运输和检查系统的行动战略。