Numerical Studies of the Landfalling Characteristics and Dynamics of Hurricanes

飓风登陆特征和动力学的数值研究

• 批准号: 0342363
• 负责人: Da-Lin Zhang
• 金额: $ 46.3万
• 依托单位: University of Maryland, College Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-01-01 至 2007-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0342363&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Numerical; Studies; Landfalling; Characteristics; Dynamics

Accurate forecasts of the track and intensity of hurricanes at landfall can save lives and reduce economic losses. Current forecast accuracy suffers from poor representation of numerical model initial conditions, coarse grid resolution, and inadequate model physics. In addition, understanding of the external and internal processes controlling the track and intensity of these storms is rather limited. The main objectives of this research are, through numerical simulations of recent landfalling hurricanes, to (a) demonstrate that the tracks, extreme winds and precipitation structures of these storms can be reasonably predicted if high grid resolution, realistic model initial conditions and physics are incorporated; and (b) study the underlying physical and dynamical processes prior to, during and after landfall. These objectives are complementary to the goals of the U.S. Weather Research Program Hurricane Landfall research thrust.To achieve the above objectives, 5-day cloud-resolving simulations of two typical landfalling hurricanes will be performed, with the incorporation of more realistic initial conditions and improved physics schemes. The simulation results will be analyzed to address the following questions: Given the state-of-art model, to what extent can the observed tracks, intensity and the rates of intensity change, and precipitation be realistically reproduced? What are the landfalling characteristics of hurricanes as they move from sea to land? What are the roles of large-scale flows, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer processes, and surface conditions in determining the landfalling characteristics of hurricanes? What is the relative significance of vortex-Rossby and gravity-inertial waves in the development of spiral rainbands and eyewall convection? Successful completion of this research will help support the training of a postdoctoral researcher and a graduate student. It will also provide a better understanding of the landfalling characteristics of hurricanes, including the inner-core structural changes and their underlying dynamical and physical processes. This research will contribute to the improved prediction of hurricanes at landfall and their associated extreme winds and flooding rainfall events that have devastating effects on the society and environment of the U.S. coastal regions.

准确预报飓风登陆时的路径和强度可以挽救生命，减少经济损失。 目前的预报精度受到数值模式初始条件，粗网格分辨率和不充分的模式物理代表性差。 此外，对控制这些风暴的路径和强度的外部和内部过程的了解相当有限。 本研究的主要目的是通过对近期登陆飓风的数值模拟，（a）证明如果结合高网格分辨率、真实的模式初始条件和物理条件，就可以合理地预测这些风暴的路径、极端风和降水结构;（B）研究登陆之前、期间和之后的基本物理和动力过程。 这些目标是对美国天气研究计划飓风登陆研究目标的补充。为了实现上述目标，将对两个典型的登陆飓风进行为期5天的云解析模拟，并结合更真实的初始条件和改进的物理方案。 模拟结果将进行分析，以解决以下问题：鉴于国家的最先进的模型，在多大程度上可以观察到的轨道，强度和强度变化率，和降水是现实再现？ 当飓风从海洋移动到陆地时，它们的登陆特征是什么？ 大尺度气流、云微物理学、边界层过程和地表条件在决定飓风登陆特征中的作用是什么？ 在螺旋雨带和眼壁对流的发展中，涡旋-罗斯贝波和重力-惯性波的相对意义是什么？ 这项研究的成功完成将有助于支持博士后研究人员和研究生的培训。 它还将使人们更好地了解飓风的登陆特征，包括内核结构变化及其潜在的动力和物理过程。 这项研究将有助于改进对登陆飓风及其相关极端风和洪水降雨事件的预测，这些事件对美国沿海地区的社会和环境产生破坏性影响。