The Impacts of Tropical Deforestation on Regional and Global Hydroclimate

热带森林砍伐对区域和全球水文气候的影响

• 批准号: 0346554
• 负责人: Roni Avissar
• 金额: $ 20.82万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-02-01 至 2006-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0346554&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impacts; Tropical; Deforestation; Regional; Global

This project follows a preliminary general circulation modeling (GCM) study conducted by the PI who found that deforestation of tropical regions, through teleconnections involving the activation of Rossby waves similar to those produced during El Nino events, has a significant impact on the rainfall of other regions. In particular, they found that the US Midwest is the continental region the most severely affected by the deforestation of Amazonia and Central Africa during spring and summer, when rainfall is crucial for agriculture in that region. Two ideas for a more robust experiment arose from that study and are the basis of the research:* The simulations performed in the preliminary study could be considerably improved by representing more realistic forcing conditions such as observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and observed deforestation patterns during the past few decades;* Furthermore, reproducing these simulations with different climate models would contribute to improving confidence in the pattern and strength of such teleconnections. This research is aimed at studying these ideas using three major GCMs: the NCAR Community Climate System Model, the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GCM and the PI's Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM). The ultimate goal of the study is to quantify the change of precipitation in all continental regions due to past, and present deforestation of tropical regions.Broader Impact: In the process of performing this research, an intercomparison of climate models and an evaluation of their capability of simulating global precipitation will be conducted. This project will also help introduce a new generation of earth system model (namely, the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model -- OLAM), which will help advance future climate research. Thus, the project has potential to improve scientists' ability to project global environmental change due to land cover/land use change and is relevant to issues of societal importance.

该项目遵循PI进行的初步大气环流模型研究，该研究发现，热带地区的森林砍伐，通过涉及激活类似于厄尔尼诺事件期间产生的Rossby波的遥相关，对其他地区的降雨产生重大影响。特别是，他们发现美国中西部是受春季和夏季亚马逊和中非森林砍伐影响最严重的大陆地区，当时降雨对该地区的农业至关重要。从该研究中产生了两个更强大的实验想法，并且是研究的基础：* 通过代表更现实的强迫条件，如观测到的海表温度（SST）和观测到的过去几十年的森林砍伐模式，可以大大改善初步研究中进行的模拟;* 此外，用不同的气候模式再现这些模拟将有助于提高对这种遥相关模式和强度的信心。本研究的目的是研究这些想法使用三个主要的GCM：NCAR社区气候系统模式，美国宇航局戈达德航天飞行中心GCM和PI的海洋-陆地-大气模式（OLAM）。研究的最终目的是量化过去和现在热带地区森林砍伐对所有大陆地区降水量的影响。更广泛的影响：在进行这项研究的过程中，将进行气候模式的相互比较，并评估它们模拟全球降水量的能力。这一项目还将有助于引进新一代地球系统模型（即海洋-陆地-大气模型- OLAM），这将有助于推动未来的气候研究。因此，该项目有可能提高科学家预测土地覆盖/土地使用变化引起的全球环境变化的能力，并与具有社会重要性的问题有关。