Regional and Global Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Under Increasing CO2 Concentrations on Mutliscale Eco-Hydro-Climatological Processes

二氧化碳浓度增加下热带森林砍伐对多尺度生态水文气候过程的区域和全球影响

• 批准号: 0902197
• 负责人: Roni Avissar
• 金额: $ 86.98万
• 依托单位: University of Miami
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2015-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0902197&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Regional; Global; Impacts; Tropical; Deforestation

Numerical experiments of tropical deforestation with general circulation models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) show the importance of land-cover teleconnections in the climate system but ignore multiscale feedbacks of regional-global and Eco-Hydro-Climatological (EHC) processes. In parallel to these scientific investigations, the evaluation and improvement of the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) has continued. Unlike typical GCMs, OLAM is uniquely designed to simulate multiscale interactions with its unstructured grid that can change resolution in any part of the global domain, as well as its fully interactive vegetation dynamics parameterization. Both features are essential for understanding the intricate processes that govern land-atmosphere interactions (including vegetation dynamics, clouds, precipitation and radiative processes) in a changing climate.This project will understand and quantify the global EHC changes under a changing climate driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and deforestation of tropical regions. Specifically, the investigators use OLAM to address two main issues: (i) What are the impacts of evolving deforestation in the Amazon basin on the multiscale EHC processes and feedbacks (including fires and other ecosystem disturbances), can we explain them and quantify them? (ii) Are these impacts affected by climate change (triggered by increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide)? In the numerical experiments to be conducted for this investigation, deforestation patterns will be derived from socio-economical scenarios of the Amazon basin development, and the carbon dioxide scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)will be used.The work will contribute to the evaluation and improvement of OLAM, which will help advance future climate research and operational weather prediction. It will be disseminated though seminars, lectures, teaching, and standard forums of publication. OLAM fulfills the criteria of a "community" model as it is freely available and supported. A post-doc will be trained and supported.

利用大气环流模式（GCMs）和区域气候模式（RCMs）对热带森林砍伐进行的数值试验表明了土地覆盖遥相关在气候系统中的重要性，但忽略了区域-全球和生态-水文-气候（EHC）过程的多尺度反馈。在进行这些科学调查的同时，继续评价和改进海洋-陆地-大气模型。与典型的GCM不同，OLAM是独特的设计来模拟多尺度的相互作用，其非结构化网格，可以改变在全球域的任何部分的分辨率，以及其完全交互式植被动力学参数化。这两个特征对于理解在气候变化中控制陆-气相互作用的复杂过程（包括植被动态、云、降水和辐射过程）至关重要。本项目将理解和量化在大气二氧化碳浓度增加和热带地区森林砍伐驱动的气候变化下全球EHC的变化。具体而言，研究人员使用OLAM解决两个主要问题：（一）亚马逊流域森林砍伐的演变对多尺度EHC过程和反馈（包括火灾和其他生态系统干扰）的影响是什么，我们能解释它们并量化它们吗？(ii)这些影响是否受到气候变化的影响（由大气中二氧化碳浓度增加引发）？在本次调查的数值实验中，森林砍伐模式将从亚马逊流域发展的社会经济情景中得出，并将使用政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）采用的二氧化碳情景，这项工作将有助于评估和改进OLAM，这将有助于推进未来的气候研究和业务天气预报。它将通过研讨会、讲座、教学和标准出版论坛传播。OLAM满足“社区”模型的标准，因为它是免费提供和支持的。博士后将得到培训和支持。