Discrete Adjustment Costs, Investment Dynamics, and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Chilean Manufacturing Plants

摘要提案编号：0351454机构：波士顿大学NSF项目：经济学： Gilchrist，Simon标题：离散调整成本、投资动态和生产率增长：来自智利制造业工厂的证据。投资的标准模型预测对政策干预的逐步反应。然而，面对调整成本的巨大非凸性，投资对政策干预的反应可能是“不稳定的”，因为公司会立即改变资本支出，或者因为它们等待采取任何行动。非凸性对新兴市场尤其重要，这使得新兴市场经济体对政策改革的反应不同于发达经济体。在结构性计量经济学框架内理解这些差异将为各种经济环境中以改革为导向的政策制定者提供有用的信息。例如，改革是迅速实施还是逐步实施取决于企业面临的调整成本的性质。本研究使用智利的数据，为关注工厂级投资过程中的非凸调整成本的最新研究做出贡献。它通过使用最大似然技术估计工厂级投资的完全指定的结构模型，做出了重要的方法学贡献。它不同于标准的调整成本模型，因为它允许固定的调整成本。本研究将投资时间和投资量的决策描述为可观测的基本状态变量的函数，如当前资本存量和当前生产率参数，这些参数决定了工厂的盈利能力。本研究项目的一个贡献是考察智利制造业工厂在1979-2000年期间的联合生产率/投资动态。现有的智利工厂一级生产力动态研究使用1979-1986年的数据，但本研究项目将扩大现有的智利工厂数据集，涵盖整个1979-2000年。这一长系列数据将有助于更好地评估智利的贸易改革，这些改革是在相对较长的时间内实施的，其影响可能需要多年才能体现出来。 由于该模型是结构性的，它可以用来进行政策实验（如关税或补贴政策的变化），也可以用作校准的一般均衡模型的输入。除了政策相关性外，该项目还将通过将广泛使用的智利制造工厂数据集扩大到2000年，为学术研究的基础设施作出贡献。研究还提出了方法上的进步，估计动态结构模型与连续和离散的选择变量。

ABSTRACTPROPOSAL NO: 0351454INSTITUTION: Boston UniversityNSF PROGARM: ECONOMICSPI: Gilchrist, SimonTITLE: Discrete adjustment costs, investment dynamics, and productivity growth: Evidence from Chilean manufacturing plants.Standard models of investment predict gradual responses to policy intervention. However, in the face of large non-convexities of adjustment costs, the response of investment to policy intervention may be "lumpy", either because firms immediately alter capital outlays or because they wait to take any action. Non-convexities are particularly important for emerging markets, making emerging market economiesrespond differently to policy reforms than developed economies. Understandingthese dissimilarities within the context of a structural econometric framework willprovide useful information for reform-oriented policy makers in a variety of economic settings. For example, whether reforms are enacted quickly or gradually will depend on the nature of adjustment costs that firms face.This research uses Chilean data to contribute to recent research focusing on the non-convex adjustment costs in the plant-level investment process. It makes important methodological contribution by estimating a fully specified structural model of plant-level investment using maximum like-likelihood techniques. It differs from standard models of adjustment costs by allowing for fixed adjustment costs. This research characterizes both the decisions of when and how much to invest as functions of underlying observable state variables such as the current capital stock and the current productivity parameter that governs plant-level profitability.A contribution of this research project is to examine the joint productivity / investment dynamics for Chilean manufacturing plants over the 1979-2000 period. Existing studies of Chilean plant-level productivity dynamics use data from 1979-1986 but this research project will extend the existing data set on Chilean plants to cover the entire 1979-2000. This long data series will for better evaluation of Chilean trade reforms, reforms that were enacted over a relatively long period of time and the impact can take many years to express itself. Because the model is structural, it can be used to conduct policy experiments (such as changes in tariff or subsidy policy) or may be used as an input into calibrated general equilibrium models. In addition to policy relevance, the project will contribute to the infrastructure of academic research by extending the widely used data set on Chilean manufacturing plants to the year 2000. The research also makes methodological advances in estimating dynamic structural models with both continuous and discrete choice variables.