Discrete Adjustment Costs, Investment Dynamics, and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Chilean Manufacturing Plants

摘要PROPOSAL NO：0351454 INSTITUTION：波士顿大学NSF PROGARM：ECONOMICSPI：Gilchrist，SimonTITLE：离散调整成本、投资动态和生产率增长：来自智利制造工厂的证据。投资的标准模型预测对政策干预的逐步反应。然而，面对调整成本的巨大非凸性，投资对政策干预的反应可能是“不稳定的”，要么是因为企业立即改变了资本支出，要么是因为他们等待采取任何行动。非凸性对新兴市场尤为重要，这使得新兴市场经济体对政策改革的反应与发达经济体不同。在结构性计量经济学框架内了解这些差异，将为各种经济环境中以改革为导向的政策制定者提供有用的信息。例如，改革是迅速还是逐步实施将取决于企业面临的调整成本的性质。这项研究使用智利的数据来促进最近的研究，重点是工厂层面投资过程中的非凸性调整成本。它通过使用最大似然技术估计厂级投资的完全特定的结构模型，在方法上做出了重要贡献。它与调整成本的标准模型不同，因为它允许固定的调整成本。这项研究的特点是，决定何时投资和投资多少是潜在的可观察状态变量的函数，例如当前的资本存量和控制工厂水平盈利的当前生产率参数。该研究项目的一个贡献是检验了1979-2000年期间智利制造工厂的联合生产率/投资动态。现有的智利工厂一级生产力动态研究使用的是1979-1986年的数据，但该研究项目将把智利工厂现有的数据集扩大到涵盖整个1979-2000年。这一漫长的数据系列将有助于更好地评估智利的贸易改革，这些改革是在相对较长的一段时间内实施的，其影响可能需要多年的时间才能表现出来。由于该模型是结构性的，它可以用于进行政策实验(例如关税或补贴政策的变化)，也可以用作校准的一般均衡模型的输入。除了政策相关性外，该项目还将通过将智利制造厂的广泛使用的数据集延长到2000年，从而为学术研究的基础设施作出贡献。该研究还在估计具有连续和离散选择变量的动态结构模型方面取得了方法论上的进展。

ABSTRACTPROPOSAL NO: 0351454INSTITUTION: Boston UniversityNSF PROGARM: ECONOMICSPI: Gilchrist, SimonTITLE: Discrete adjustment costs, investment dynamics, and productivity growth: Evidence from Chilean manufacturing plants.Standard models of investment predict gradual responses to policy intervention. However, in the face of large non-convexities of adjustment costs, the response of investment to policy intervention may be "lumpy", either because firms immediately alter capital outlays or because they wait to take any action. Non-convexities are particularly important for emerging markets, making emerging market economiesrespond differently to policy reforms than developed economies. Understandingthese dissimilarities within the context of a structural econometric framework willprovide useful information for reform-oriented policy makers in a variety of economic settings. For example, whether reforms are enacted quickly or gradually will depend on the nature of adjustment costs that firms face.This research uses Chilean data to contribute to recent research focusing on the non-convex adjustment costs in the plant-level investment process. It makes important methodological contribution by estimating a fully specified structural model of plant-level investment using maximum like-likelihood techniques. It differs from standard models of adjustment costs by allowing for fixed adjustment costs. This research characterizes both the decisions of when and how much to invest as functions of underlying observable state variables such as the current capital stock and the current productivity parameter that governs plant-level profitability.A contribution of this research project is to examine the joint productivity / investment dynamics for Chilean manufacturing plants over the 1979-2000 period. Existing studies of Chilean plant-level productivity dynamics use data from 1979-1986 but this research project will extend the existing data set on Chilean plants to cover the entire 1979-2000. This long data series will for better evaluation of Chilean trade reforms, reforms that were enacted over a relatively long period of time and the impact can take many years to express itself. Because the model is structural, it can be used to conduct policy experiments (such as changes in tariff or subsidy policy) or may be used as an input into calibrated general equilibrium models. In addition to policy relevance, the project will contribute to the infrastructure of academic research by extending the widely used data set on Chilean manufacturing plants to the year 2000. The research also makes methodological advances in estimating dynamic structural models with both continuous and discrete choice variables.