Accounting for Reliability in Complex Engineering Systems Design

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The objective of this grant is to develop methodologies and computationally practical approaches of reliability analysis and reliability-based design for complex engineering systems. The complexities include multiple interacting disciplines, large number of design variables, the mixture of multilevel details of uncertainty information, and the extensive use of computer simulations. The complexities have hampered the wide applications of reliability-based design in real-life engineering sytems design problems. This research will deal with the complexities at two complementary levels. At reliability analysis level, efficient and accurate reliability analysis methods, including Saddlepoint Approximations, will be developed. At reliability-based design level, strategies and mathematical formulations of reliability-based design models that can be solved efficiently with capabilities of dealing with the abovementioned complexities will be established. The proposed approaches will be demonstrated, verified, and validated through a reliability-based vehicle safety design problem by collaboration with industry. It is anticipated that the research results will provide industry efficient and practical tools for the implementation of reliability analysis and reliability-based design in complex engineering systems design with reduced product development times at reduced cost and risk. The research will also contribute computational methods to general engineering design under uncertainty, such as robust design and decision-based design under risk and uncertainty. In addition, the research results will contribute to education in the areas of engineering design theory and methodology, quality engineering, and systems engineering.