Systems engineering approach to the reliability of complex civil infrastructure

复杂民用基础设施可靠性的系统工程方法

• 批准号: 462879-2013
• 负责人: Simonovic, Slobodan
• 金额: $ 6.61万
• 依托单位: University of Western Ontario
• 依托单位国家: 加拿大
• 项目类别: Collaborative Research and Development Grants
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 加拿大
• 起止时间: 2017-01-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nserc-crsng.gc.ca/ase-oro/Details-Detailles_eng.asp?id=617998
• 关键词: Systems; engineering; approach; reliability; complex

The dams and hydropower industry has a demand to characterize the risk associated with its operations, and in particular, the risk of dam failure. In current practice, the capability to reliably estimate risk remains very weak. The reasons are essentially all due to the fact that the existing capability to characterize dam risk is the "extreme event" philosophy of dam safety that prevailed in the 1970's and 1980's. In terms of this philosophy, there could be no consideration of combinations of lesser floods and earthquakes. Beyond these physical dam safety concerns, this traditional philosophy does not consider operator error or procedural failures in any way, nor does it embody any consideration of institutional failures or contributions to risk. In particular the problem of "uncommon combinations of problems that individually are not uncommon" is omitted completely.Recent research has revealed that systems analysis and engineering has the potential to provide a philosophy, framework, and modeling approach to address many of these weaknesses and omissions in current capability of the power industry to characterize risk from dams, and advance beyond what is at best a lower bound estimate of the risk. The system modeling also has the potential to contribute to many other operational aspects such as whole-life-cycle asset management, water management policy and stakeholder involvement, and reservoir operation and maintenance.The proposed research will (a) develop the second generation risk analysis methodology for complex hydropower systems of dams and reservoirs. The proposed methodology will be based on general systems theory and system dynamics simulation in particular. Verification of the methodology will (b) include a real hydropower system reliability analysis. An integrated system dynamics modelling environment will be built together with the industry partner and applied to various types of hydropower system configurations. The proposed research will be conducted using case studies made available by the industry partner - BC Hydro, Burnaby, BC.

大坝和水电行业需要描述与其运营相关的风险，特别是溃坝风险。在目前的实践中，可靠地估计风险的能力仍然非常薄弱。其原因基本上都是由于这样一个事实，即现有的能力，以大坝风险的特点是“极端事件”的大坝安全的哲学，在20世纪70年代和80年代盛行。根据这一理念，不可能考虑较小的洪水和地震的组合。除了这些大坝的物理安全问题，这种传统的哲学不考虑运营商的错误或程序失败，也没有体现任何考虑机构故障或风险的贡献。特别是“个别并不罕见的问题的罕见组合”的问题被完全省略。最近的研究表明，系统分析和工程有潜力提供一个哲学，框架和建模方法，以解决许多这些弱点和遗漏，在当前的能力，电力工业的特点，风险从大坝，并超越风险的最低估计。该系统建模也有可能有助于许多其他业务方面，如全生命周期的资产管理，水管理政策和利益相关者的参与，水库的运营和maintenance.The拟议的研究将（a）开发第二代风险分析方法的复杂水电系统的大坝和水库。所提出的方法将基于一般系统理论和系统动力学模拟特别是。方法的验证将（B）包括真实的水电系统可靠性分析。将与行业合作伙伴共同建立一个综合系统动力学建模环境，并将其应用于各种类型的水电系统配置。拟议的研究将使用行业合作伙伴- BC Hydro，Burnaby，BC提供的案例研究进行。