BE/CNH: Feedbacks Among Patterns and Processes of Land-Use and Land-Cover Dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

BE/CNH:厄瓜多尔亚马逊北部土地利用和土地覆盖动态模式和过程的反馈

基本信息

项目摘要

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) associated with tropical deforestation has been characterized as complex in that feedbacks between the human and natural components of the system create dynamic trajectories with emergent properties. The most important feedbacks are those related to the spatial structure of the system. In this interdisciplinary research project, the researchers will investigate how feedbacks at a frontier of human settlement in the Ecuadorian tropical rainforest create system dynamics that constrain the future trajectories of human settlement. The tropical rainforest of northeastern Ecuador is an area of complex interactions among a number of diverse stakeholders:(a) spontaneous colonists who have in-migrated from other regions of the country and settled on household farms; (b) newly emerging communities and market centers that have consolidated services and offer off-farm employment to colonists; (c) indigenous people who are affected by the rise of commercial agriculture, oil production within their territories, and a transition to a consumer-based economy; (d) oil exploiters who have built roads and laid pipelines for petroleum extraction in colonist and indigenous areas; and (e) conservation and protected areas established to impeded development and retain biodiversity in a rapidly transforming frontier environment. The most extensive changes on the land are those wrought by agricultural colonists who migrated to the region in the wake of oil exploration, settling along roads built by oil companies starting around 1970. Interrelationships with the other stakeholders in the region are complex, resulting from different, often conflicting, interests and feedbacks between spatial patterns and rates of change on the advancing frontier environment. Feedbacks constrain or even reverse some of the original changes in LULCC through system dynamics. Properties emerging from local non-linear feedbacks constrain the evolving patterns of land use and produce a system with identifiable potential future alternative states and dynamics characterized by phase changes.Land-use and land-cover change is reshaping the Earth's biosphere and altering species habitats. As a result LULCC has significant implication for the vulnerability and sustainability of earth systems. Human-environment systems have characteristic cyclic dynamics that are linked in a hierarchy to faster and slower cycles. The cycles that change a system are often those in which feedbacks cross scales. The LULCC dynamics on which people depend may be subject to rapid changes and shifts to situations that cannot support growing populations and their activities. The characteristics of systems that determine their responses in such conditions are summarized as resilience. The use of complexity theory to analyze LULCC system dynamics on an ecologically vital frontier will yield better understand its resilience and its future. An integrated simulation modeling approach that draws upon collected ethnographic data and a household and community survey will serve as a focused statistical base to create rules for an agent based model (ABM) that will represent the land use decision making of the key actors, and will provide parameters that simulate LULCC in the past and for future periods. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.
与热带森林砍伐相关的土地利用和土地覆盖变化(LULCC)具有复杂的特点,因为系统中人类和自然组成部分之间的反馈产生了具有紧急特性的动态轨迹。 最重要的反馈是那些与系统的空间结构有关的反馈。 在这个跨学科的研究项目中,研究人员将研究厄瓜多尔热带雨林人类定居前沿的反馈如何创造系统动力学,从而限制人类定居的未来轨迹。 厄瓜多尔东北部的热带雨林是一个各种利益攸关方之间复杂互动的地区:(a)从该国其他地区迁入并在家庭农场定居的自发殖民者;(B)新出现的社区和市场中心,这些社区和市场中心整合了各种服务并向殖民者提供农场外就业机会;(c)受到商业性农业兴起、其领土内石油生产以及向消费型经济过渡影响的土著人民;(d)在殖民地和土著地区修建道路和铺设石油开采管道的石油开采者;(e)为在迅速变化的边境环境中阻碍发展和保持生物多样性而建立的养护和保护区。 土地上最广泛的变化是那些在石油勘探之后迁移到该地区的农业殖民者造成的,他们沿着石油公司从1970年开始修建的道路定居。 与该区域其他利益攸关方的相互关系是复杂的,这是由于不同的、往往是相互冲突的利益以及空间格局和不断发展的边境环境变化率之间的反馈。 反馈通过系统动力学约束甚至逆转土地利用、土地利用的变化和气候变化的某些原始变化。 当地非线性反馈所产生的特性限制了土地使用的演变模式,并产生了一个具有可识别的潜在未来替代状态和动态的系统,其特点是相位变化,土地使用和土地覆盖的变化正在重塑地球生物圈,改变物种的生境。 因此,土地利用、土地利用变化和气候变化对地球系统的脆弱性和可持续性具有重要意义。 人类-环境系统具有特征性的循环动力学,在层次结构中与更快和更慢的循环相联系。 改变一个系统的周期往往是那些反馈跨越尺度的周期。 人们所依赖的土地利用、土地利用变化和气候变化的动态可能会发生迅速变化,并转变为无法支持不断增长的人口及其活动的局面。 决定系统在这种条件下的反应的系统特征被概括为弹性。 利用复杂性理论分析土地利用、土地利用变化和气候变化在生态上至关重要的前沿的系统动态,将更好地了解其恢复力和未来。 一个综合的模拟建模方法,利用收集的人种学数据和家庭和社区调查,将作为一个重点统计基础,创建规则的代理基于模型(ABM),将代表土地利用决策的关键行为者,并将提供参数,模拟土地利用、土地利用的变化在过去和未来的时期。 该项目得到了2004财政年度环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的资助,该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合的动力学。

项目成果

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Stephen Walsh其他文献

Blood transfusion requirements in major head and neck oncological and immediate reconstructive surgery
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.bjoms.2007.07.087
  • 发表时间:
    2007-10-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Stephen Walsh;Richa Aparajita;Nadine Powell;Graham Smith;Nicholas Hyde
  • 通讯作者:
    Nicholas Hyde
Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison
专家启发方法选择过程及方法比较
  • DOI:
    10.4324/9780203122600-22
  • 发表时间:
    2010
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Angela C. Dalton;Stephen Walsh;P. Whitney
  • 通讯作者:
    P. Whitney
Calibrating Bayesian Network Representations of Social-Behavioral Models
校准社会行为模型的贝叶斯网络表示
Is routine microbiology swabbing necessary in odontogenic infections? A 5-year retrospective study of microbiology reports at Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.bjoms.2016.11.080
  • 发表时间:
    2016-12-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    Clifton Wan;Jessica Rice;Meeral Makwana;Urooj Iqbal;Sowjanya Avireddi;Stephen Walsh
  • 通讯作者:
    Stephen Walsh
Cross-combined composite sampling designs for identification of elevated regions
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s10651-012-0208-1
  • 发表时间:
    2012-06-19
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    1.800
  • 作者:
    John Hathaway;Stephen Walsh;Landon Sego;Brent Pulsipher
  • 通讯作者:
    Brent Pulsipher

Stephen Walsh的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Stephen Walsh', 18)}}的其他基金

Doctoral Dissertation Research: Habitat Mapping and Species-Environment Interactions of Rare Species using Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing: Case Study: Endangered Mangrove Finch
博士论文研究:利用多传感器遥感绘制稀有物种的栖息地绘图和物种-环境相互作用:案例研究:濒危红树林雀
  • 批准号:
    0927164
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research on Topological Relationships at Alpine Treeline
高山林线拓扑关系的合作研究
  • 批准号:
    9111852
  • 财政年份:
    1991
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
High Performance Liquid Chromatography in an Integrated Advanced Laboratory Curriculum
集成高级实验室课程中的高效液相色谱
  • 批准号:
    8651051
  • 财政年份:
    1986
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Honors Workshop on Remote Sensing for Middle School Teachersof Earth Science
中学地球科学教师遥感荣誉研讨会
  • 批准号:
    8470067
  • 财政年份:
    1984
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Honors Workshop For Earth Science Teachers in the Analog AndDigital Analysis of Remotely-Sensed Data
地球科学教师遥感数据模拟和数字分析荣誉研讨会
  • 批准号:
    8470021
  • 财政年份:
    1984
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Acquisition of High Pressure Liquid Chromatography System
购置高压液相色谱系统
  • 批准号:
    8214248
  • 财政年份:
    1982
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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Collaborative Research: Permafrost climate feedbacks: How interactions among plants, microbes, and minerals affect biogeochemical projections in a changing Arctic
合作研究:永久冻土气候反馈:植物、微生物和矿物质之间的相互作用如何影响不断变化的北极的生物地球化学预测
  • 批准号:
    2031072
  • 财政年份:
    2021
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    --
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Collaborative Research: Permafrost climate feedbacks: How interactions among plants, microbes, and minerals affect biogeochemical projections in a changing Arctic
合作研究:永久冻土气候反馈:植物、微生物和矿物质之间的相互作用如何影响不断变化的北极的生物地球化学预测
  • 批准号:
    2031238
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    2021
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    --
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    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Permafrost climate feedbacks: How interactions among plants, microbes, and minerals affect biogeochemical projections in a changing Arctic
合作研究:永久冻土气候反馈:植物、微生物和矿物质之间的相互作用如何影响不断变化的北极的生物地球化学预测
  • 批准号:
    2031253
  • 财政年份:
    2021
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    --
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Support for a U.S.-Taiwan Workshop on the Feedbacks Among Climate, Erosion and Tectonics
支持美国-台湾气候、侵蚀和构造反馈研讨会
  • 批准号:
    1650147
  • 财政年份:
    2016
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    --
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    Standard Grant
CNH-L: Scale-Dependent Feedbacks Among Protected Areas and Surrounding Socioecological Systems
CNH-L:保护区和周围社会生态系统之间的尺度相关反馈
  • 批准号:
    1617309
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Support for U.S.-Taiwan Workshop on Feedbacks and Coupling among Mountain Building, Surface Processes and Climate
支持美国-台湾关于造山、地表过程和气候之间的反馈和耦合研讨会
  • 批准号:
    1522478
  • 财政年份:
    2015
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    --
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Collaborative Research: Ecoclimate Teleconnections between Amazonia and Temperate North America: Cross-Region Feedbacks among Tree Mortality, Land Use Change, and the Atmosphere
合作研究:亚马逊流域和北美温带之间的生态气候遥相关:树木死亡率、土地利用变化和大气之间的跨区域反馈
  • 批准号:
    1340604
  • 财政年份:
    2014
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    --
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    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Ecoclimate Teleconnections between Amazonia and Temperate North America: Cross-Region Feedbacks among Tree Mortality, Land Use Change, and the Atmosphere
合作研究:亚马逊流域和北美温带之间的生态气候遥相关:树木死亡率、土地利用变化和大气之间的跨区域反馈
  • 批准号:
    1340624
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    2014
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Collaborative Research: Ecoclimate Teleconnections between Amazonia and Temperate North America: Cross-Region Feedbacks among Tree Mortality, Land Use Change, and the Atmosphere
合作研究:亚马逊流域和北美温带之间的生态气候遥相关:树木死亡率、土地利用变化和大气之间的跨区域反馈
  • 批准号:
    1340649
  • 财政年份:
    2014
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    --
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Wind over rock: Quantifying the feedbacks among wind flow, bedrock erosion, and tectonic uplift
风吹过岩石:量化风流、基岩侵蚀和构造隆升之间的反馈
  • 批准号:
    1323148
  • 财政年份:
    2013
  • 资助金额:
    --
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
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