Evaluating Competing Models for Production Investment Valuation

评估生产投资估值的竞争模型

• 批准号: 0411930
• 负责人: Eva Regnier
• 金额: $ 2万
• 依托单位: Naval Postgraduate School
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2006-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0411930&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evaluating; Competing; Models; Production; Investment

This grant funds the development of an NSF proposal to 1) investigate the effects of price dynamics on the profitability of real investments in manufacturing and 2) evaluate the power of modern investment evaluation methods, including real options and portfolio optimization methods, in predicting the effects of price dynamics. The study that would be proposed would include a theoretical portion to integrate financial profit models, production profit models, and economic models of price dynamics, as well as empirical tests to evaluate the power of each model in predicting firm and shareholder profits. The grant funding will be used in planning the study that will be proposed. The planning activities will include developing at least one integrated model to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, identifying data sources, and developing one or more case studies. The impact of the eventual research would include identifying which characteristics of price and output dynamics are the most important predictors of profitability, and generating evidence to support or refute the applicability of finance-based profit models to real investments in manufacturing. These results will be especially important for manufacturers that are considering conservation investments, supply contracts or vertical integration to reduce price risk, or diversifying their inputs or outputs-for example, a carpet fiber manufacturer considering a process that uses biomass instead of petroleum-based materials.

这笔赠款资助NSF提案的发展，以1）调查价格动态对制造业真实的投资盈利能力的影响，2）评估现代投资评估方法的能力，包括真实的期权和投资组合优化方法，预测价格动态的影响。拟议的研究将包括一个理论部分，以整合财务利润模型，生产利润模型和价格动态的经济模型，以及实证测试，以评估每个模型在预测公司和股东利润方面的能力。赠款资金将用于规划将提出的研究。规划活动将包括开发至少一个综合模型，以证明这一方法的有效性，确定数据来源，并开发一个或多个案例研究。 最终研究的影响将包括确定价格和产出动态的哪些特征是盈利能力的最重要预测因素，并提供证据支持或反驳基于金融的盈利模式对制造业真实的投资的适用性。这些结果将是特别重要的制造商，正在考虑保护投资，供应合同或垂直一体化，以减少价格风险，或多样化的投入或产出，例如，地毯纤维制造商考虑的过程中，使用生物质，而不是石油为基础的材料。