Evaluating Competing Models for Production Investment Valuation

该基金资助了一项NSF提案的发展：1)调查价格动态对制造业实际投资盈利能力的影响；2)评估现代投资评估方法（包括实物期权和投资组合优化方法）在预测价格动态影响方面的能力。该研究将包括理论部分，整合财务利润模型、生产利润模型和价格动态的经济模型，以及实证检验，以评估每个模型在预测公司和股东利润方面的能力。拨款将用于规划拟进行的研究。规划活动将包括开发至少一个综合模型来证明这种方法的有效性，确定数据来源，并开发一个或多个案例研究。最终研究的影响将包括确定价格和产出动态的哪些特征是盈利能力的最重要预测因素，并产生证据来支持或反驳基于财务的盈利模型对制造业实际投资的适用性。这些结果对于考虑节约投资、供应合同或垂直整合以降低价格风险或多样化投入或产出的制造商尤其重要，例如，地毯纤维制造商考虑使用生物质代替石油基材料的工艺。

This grant funds the development of an NSF proposal to 1) investigate the effects of price dynamics on the profitability of real investments in manufacturing and 2) evaluate the power of modern investment evaluation methods, including real options and portfolio optimization methods, in predicting the effects of price dynamics. The study that would be proposed would include a theoretical portion to integrate financial profit models, production profit models, and economic models of price dynamics, as well as empirical tests to evaluate the power of each model in predicting firm and shareholder profits. The grant funding will be used in planning the study that will be proposed. The planning activities will include developing at least one integrated model to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, identifying data sources, and developing one or more case studies. The impact of the eventual research would include identifying which characteristics of price and output dynamics are the most important predictors of profitability, and generating evidence to support or refute the applicability of finance-based profit models to real investments in manufacturing. These results will be especially important for manufacturers that are considering conservation investments, supply contracts or vertical integration to reduce price risk, or diversifying their inputs or outputs-for example, a carpet fiber manufacturer considering a process that uses biomass instead of petroleum-based materials.