Investment Dynamics with Common and Private Values: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation

具有共同和私人价值的投资动态：一个理论和实验调查项目摘要经济学中一个具有重要公共政策影响的持久辩论是，市场是否有效地聚合了投资者或公司等个人决策者持有的信息，以及是否有效地进行了配置。例如，企业是否因为等待、观察市场活动和了解他人信息更有利可图而推迟了对新技术的有利可图的投资？如果太多的企业采取延迟策略，投资不足会不会错误地让市场参与者相信，其他企业认为投资无利可图？这项研究将在一个简单的投资博弈的背景下，调查这类问题。最重要的是投资者对其他投资者信息的推断。当一个玩家投资时，其他人必须区分该玩家拥有关于每个人投资回报的有利信息的可能性，以及投资只对该玩家有利的可能性(由于投资成本较低)。投资者面临着一个权衡，一个是希望通过立即投资更早开始盈利的愿望，另一个是为了向其他人学习而推迟投资的诱惑。本研究采用了理论和实验相结合的研究方法。理解经济动机和心理动机可能会提出有效的政策工具，鼓励更有效的信息传播，从而使市场更有效率。

Investment Dynamics with Common and Private Values: A Theoretical and Experimental Investigation Project Abstract An enduring debate in Economics, with important public policy implications, is whether markets efficiently aggregate the information that is held by individual decision makers like investors or corporations, and whether efficient allocations are the result. For example, do businesses delay profitable investments in new technologies, because it is more profitable for them to wait, observe market activity, and learn something about the information of others? If too many businesses adopt a delay strategy, will the lack of investment wrongly convince market participants that other businesses view investment as unprofitable? This research will investigate these sorts of questions, in the context of a simple investment game. Of central importance are the inferences investors make about the information of other investors. When one player invests, others must disentangle the possibility that the player has favorable information about everyone's investment returns, and the possibility that investment is favorable only for that player (due to low investment costs). Investors face a tradeoff between the desire to start earning profits earlier by investing right away, and the temptation to delay investment in order to learn from others. The research uses both theoretical and experimental methodologies. Understanding the economic incentives and psychological motivations may suggest effective policy tools that encourage more efficient dispersion of information, thereby allowing markets to be more efficient.