Collaborative Research: Contingent Reasoning and Bayesian Updating in Games of Incomplete Information: An Experimental Analysis

协作研究：不完全信息博弈中的条件推理和贝叶斯更新：实验分析

• 批准号: 1031101
• 负责人: James Peck
• 金额: $ 19.17万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1031101&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Contingent; Reasoning; Bayesian

This project focuses on two cognitive abilities that are likely to play a key role for departures from rationality when people make strategic decisions under situations of incomplete information. The first is the decision maker's ability to adjust his or her beliefs as he gets new information in a way that is statistically correct -- in other words, the ability to perform Bayesian updating. The second is the ability to carefully think through possible relevant scenarios before making a decision, an ability that the researchers term 'contingent reasoning'.The study uses decision making experiments to study the role of Bayesian updating and contingent reasoning in a series of environments; second price private value auctions, an array of common value auctions, versions of the 'Acquiring a Company' game that have studied by other research teams, and endogenous timing investment games. The researchers use a specially designed individual choice task to classify participants based on their use of Bayesian updating and contingent reasoning. These research subjects then participate in a series of strategically equivalent games to see how behavior in market environments depends on cognitive characteristics.The results apply to a wide range of environments. The requirements for contingent reasoning in any real-world situation depend on a wide variety of factors. Understanding how contingent reasoning affects decisions will allow us to choose those factors in order to encourage people to make the best possible decisions for reaching their chosen goals.

该项目重点关注两种认知能力，当人们在不完整信息的情况下做出战略决策时，这两种能力可能在偏离理性方面发挥关键作用。 第一个是决策者在以统计上正确的方式获取新信息时调整其信念的能力，换句话说，就是执行贝叶斯更新的能力。 第二个是在做出决定之前仔细思考可能的相关场景的能力，研究人员将这种能力称为“偶然推理”。该研究利用决策实验来研究贝叶斯更新和偶然推理在一系列环境中的作用；第二价私人价值拍卖、一系列共同价值拍卖、其他研究团队研究过的“收购公司”游戏版本以及内生时机投资游戏。 研究人员使用专门设计的个人选择任务，根据参与者对贝叶斯更新和条件推理的使用进行分类。 然后，这些研究对象参与一系列战略上等效的游戏，以了解市场环境中的行为如何取决于认知特征。研究结果适用于广泛的环境。 任何现实情况中对偶然推理的要求取决于多种因素。 了解偶然推理如何影响决策将使我们能够选择这些因素，以鼓励人们做出最佳决策以实现他们所选择的目标。