U.S.-Turkey Cooperative Research: Analysis of Accident Risks in Narrow Waterways: The Case of Istanbul Channel

0423262 AltiokDescription：该项目支持新泽西州新不伦瑞克罗格斯大学工业与系统工程系Tayur Altiok博士和土耳其伊斯坦布尔Bogazici大学工业工程教授Ilhan Or博士之间的合作研究。PIS将开发一个贝叶斯风险评估模型，用于分析海上事故情景。虽然模型的使用将以博斯普鲁斯海峡为例进行演示，但其框架将适用于其他航道的事故概率评估，并可能也交叉到其他运输方式。船舶类别和到达模式中自相关性的引入提高了MTS模拟的技术水平，了解这些相关性对海上事故风险评估的影响将是非常有意义的。该框架将扩展到多个目标，并将包括经济和安全目标作为框架的一部分。PIS计划通过检查该地区每年发生的数百起事故，使用模拟来给出情况的频率，并使用这些数据来估计在这些情况下发生事故的可能性，从而考虑该地区可获得的事故数据量。这将有助于确定所考虑的许多参数之间的关系。该小组非常有资格执行这一项目，土耳其PI已经在该地区开展了工作，并且已经开发了一个模拟模型。PIS将考虑这些结果对密西西比河和休斯顿航道的适用性。拟议的活动有哪些更广泛的影响？博斯普鲁斯海峡是一条独特的水道。它是国际性的，但完全在土耳其境内传播。它经过一个人口密度高的地区，但它本身就是几个需要利用它进行对外贸易的国家的生命线。它越来越多地被用于石油运输、海运和其他危险材料货物的运输。这项研究为航运业和港口业提供了基本方法，可与个别水道的独特数据一起使用，以最大限度地减少风险，因此应为航运业和港口业奠定非常宝贵的基础。这项技术也可以转化为国土安全问题。这很可能是一个丰富的学习环境。博斯普鲁斯的模拟将非常吸引许多教员和学生。

0423262 AltiokDescription: This project supports a collaborative research between Dr. Tayfur Altiok, Department of Industrial and System Engineering, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and Dr. Ilhan Or, Industrial Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey. The PIs are to develop a Bayesian risk assessment model for analyzing maritime accident scenarios. While the use of the model will be demonstrated using the Bosporus as an example, its framework will be applicable to accident probability assessment in other waterways and potentially also cross into other transportation modes as well. The incorporation of autocorrelations within vessel classes and arrival patterns advances the state of the art in MTS simulations and it would be of great interest to see the effect of these dependencies on the assessment of maritime accident risk. The framework would be extended to multiple objectives and would include economic and security objectives as part of the framework. The PIs plan to consider the amount of accident data available for this region by examining the hundreds of accidents a year in this region, using a simulation to give the frequency of situations and using the data to estimate the probabilities of accidents in these situations. This will help define relationships among the many parameters considered. The team is very well qualified to conduct this project and the Turkish PI has already done work in this region and has a simulation model already developed. The PIs will consider the applicability of the results to the Mississippi and the Houston Ship Channel. What are the broader impacts of the proposed activity? The Bosporus is a unique waterway. It is international, yet fully passing within Turkey. It passes through an area of high population density and yet is itself a lifeline to several countries that need to use it for their foreign commerce. It has been increasingly used for transport of oil shipping and for other hazard materials cargo. This research should be very valuable groundwork for the shipping industry and the port industry by providing basic methodology that can be used with unique data for individual waterways to minimize risk. The technology can also be translated into homeland security issues as well. It is likely to be a rich learning environment. The simulation of the Bosporus would be very appealing to many instructors and students.