Integrating Risk Analysis and Risk Communication

整合风险分析和风险沟通

• 批准号: 0433152
• 负责人: Baruch Fischhoff
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Carnegie-Mellon University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0433152&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Integrating; Risk; Analysis; Communication

The need for behaviorally realistic risk analysis arises in many domains. The project will pursue it in the context of three relatively unrelated risks: (a) radiological emergencies, (b) adolescents' safety and violence, and (c) animal vectors spreading disease to humans. These domains include commonly experienced risks (e.g., waste disposal, bullying), as well as the more novel ones of terrorism. In addition to their timeliness and public interest, these domains have features that will force the development of a robust methodology: They can evoke powerful emotions. They require contributions from multiple disciplines. They raise difficult value tradeoffs. Their complexity and unfamiliarity defy simplistic communication strategies.The project will develop and apply the emerging methodology of integrated assessment to include the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, in addressing these complex social problems. Combining these diverse approaches, across these three critically important risk domains, the research team will document the enhanced version of integrated assessment, in such a way as to facilitate other researchers applying it to other domains. The substantive findings will be disseminated through the usual route of peer-reviewed publication and scientific presentations, and completion of a book. However, the methodological results must be given extra attention to ensure that they emerge in a generally applicable format. To this end, a workshop will be held in year three, inviting interested faculty, researchers, and advanced graduate students from fields ranging from engineering to natural and social sciences. It will use worked examples from the three risk domains, with the goal of enabling attendees to start new interdisciplinary collaborations.

行为现实的风险分析的需要出现在许多领域。该项目将在三个相对不相关的风险范围内开展这项工作：（a）放射性紧急情况;（B）青少年安全和暴力;（c）向人类传播疾病的动物媒介。这些领域包括常见的风险（例如，废物处理，欺凌），以及更新颖的恐怖主义。除了它们的及时性和公共利益之外，这些领域还具有迫使开发强大方法的特征：它们可以唤起强大的情感。它们需要来自多个学科的贡献。他们提出了困难的价值权衡。他们的复杂性和陌生性挑战简单的沟通策略。该项目将开发和应用新兴的综合评估方法，包括社会，行为和经济科学，以解决这些复杂的社会问题。结合这些不同的方法，在这三个至关重要的风险领域，研究小组将记录综合评估的增强版本，以便于其他研究人员将其应用于其他领域。实质性的研究结果将通过同行审查出版物和科学介绍以及完成一本书的通常途径传播。然而，必须特别注意方法结果，以确保它们以普遍适用的格式出现。为此，将在第三年举办研讨会，邀请感兴趣的教师，研究人员和高级研究生，从工程到自然科学和社会科学。它将使用来自三个风险领域的工作实例，目的是使与会者能够开始新的跨学科合作。