What is a World Worth? Value Elicitation for Global Environmental Problems

9309428费希霍夫全球环境问题给社会带来了困难和深远的决定。与其他明显和重要的社会问题一样，试图在决策过程中引起并纳入公众意见的努力往往因现有的调查技术而受挫。如果要让公众有意义地参与这些决策，则需要满足几个条件：(A)需要征求具有代表性的公众成员的意见；(B)征求意见过程的参与者需要了解不同政策对其家庭、社会和世界的影响；(C)参与者需要阐明其基本价值观对特定政策的影响；(D)参与者表达意见的方式必须能反映其复杂性、强度和不确定性；以及(E)意见的汇总方式必须能得出其对社会决策的影响。这项研究提出了一种满足这些条件的方法。实施这一办法需要对启发过程中的不同步骤进行重点调查，包括：拟订连贯一致的政策问题；阐明不同备选办法的影响；设计和标准化应对模式；以及评估程序。这项研究将为开发一种新的偏好和价值诱导工具提供基本的方法和测试。研究的后续阶段将演示该工具，并在更多的参与者中更正式地测试它。***

9309428 Fischhoff Global environmental problems pose difficult and far reaching decisions for societies. As with other visible and important societal problems, attempts to elicit and incorporate views of the public in the decision making process are often frustrated by available survey techniques. If the public is to be involved meaningfully in these decisions, then several conditions need to be met: (a) the views of representative members of the public need to be elicited; (b) participants in the elicitation process need to understand the impacts of different policies on their households, societies, and the world; (c) participants need to articulate the implications of their basic values for particular policies; (d) participants must express their opinions in a way that captures their complexity, intensity, and uncertainty; and (e) opinions must be aggregated in a way that derives their implications for societal decision making. This research advances an approach to meeting these conditions. Implementing the approach requires focused investigations of the different steps in the elicitation process including: formulating a coherent policy issue; explicating the implications of different options; designing and standardizing the response mode; and evaluating the procedure. The research will provide fundamental methods and tests to develop a new tool in preference and valuation elicitation. Later phases of the research will demonstrate the tool and test it more formally with larger numbers of participants. ***