Consequences of Changing Topography on Pyroclastic Flow Dispersal During the Current Active Cycle of Tungurahua, Ecuador

通古拉瓦火山位于厄瓜多尔，海拔5023米，大约每100年发生一次灾难性的喷发。自1999年以来，当前火山喷发产生的潜在火山流威胁着距离山顶仅6公里的巴诺斯镇（约20,000居民）。这项研究将显示与这次喷发有关的快速沉积和侵蚀如何改变人口密集地区附近山谷内的当地地表。火山流的计算机模拟将结合地形变化，以更准确地预测可能受到后续火山流影响的地区。本次调查将通过确定历史活动模式，确定持续火山活动对山谷地貌演变的影响，以及确定与山谷结构变化相关的新危害，来确定这些模拟对相关危害的影响。这本质上是实时危害分析。这项研究的其他更广泛的影响将是支持一名博士研究员和三名来自布法罗大学的本科生的实地和实验室工作。将鼓励来自代表性不足群体的学生，特别是西班牙裔背景的学生参加。来自厄瓜多尔基多国立理工大学地理研究所（IG-EPN）的学生和专业人员也将参与两所大学之间的交流工作。这个项目的数据对于研究其他地方类似火山爆发的更大范围的危害问题的团体来说将特别有意义。

Tungurahua, a 5,023 m high volcano in Ecuador produces a catastrophic eruption approximately every 100 years. Since 1999, potential volcanic flows from the current eruption threaten the town of Banos (~20,000 inhabitants) that is located only 6 km from the summit. This study will show how rapid deposition and erosion related to this eruption change the local ground surface within valleys near populated areas. Computer simulations of volcanic flows will incorporate topographic changes to more accurately forecast the areas that could be affected by subsequent flows. This investigation will determine the consequences of these simulations on associated hazards by determining the pattern of historical activity, establishing the effects of continuous volcanic activity on evolution of valley geomorphology, and ascertaining the new hazards associated with changes in the valley configuration. This essentially is real-time hazard analysis. Additional broader impacts of this study will be to support field and laboratory work of one Ph.D. researcher and 3 undergraduate students from the University at Buffalo. The participation of students from underrepresented groups, especially of Hispanic background, will be encouraged. Students and professionals from Instituto Geofisico, Escuela Politecnica Nacional in Quito (IG-EPN) in Ecuador will also participate in work in an exchange between the two universities. Data from this project will be of particular interest to groups studying the broader-scale problem of hazards related to eruptions of similar volcanoes elsewhere.