Model Development for Two-Phase Thin Layer Flows and Validation Using Debris Flows at Tungurahua, Ecuador and Ruapehu, New Zealand

厄瓜多尔通古拉瓦和新西兰鲁阿佩胡的两相薄层流模型开发和泥石流验证

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    0711497
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2007
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2007-09-15 至 2013-02-28
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Mudflows are one of the most common natural hazards; they occur frequently associated with heavy rainfall, earthquakes or other unusual phenomena. They often cause a great loss of life and property. This research will use field studies of an actual large volcanic mudflow that occurred in New Zealand in March 2007. It is proposed to develop and test a computer model that simulates such flows that are a mixture of solid particles and water. An important part of this study is to determine the degree of certainty or uncertainty that is possible in forecasts of future mudflows. Analysis of field measurements will provide the basis for testing and improving the computer model. A careful series of computer simulations will be done to sequentially reproduce the field measurements taken of the actual flow. The results of this process can be analyzed to increase the confidence level in forecasting of similar and smaller mudflows elsewhere in the world. A secondary goal of the project will be to forecast smaller mudflows at a volcano in Ecuador that is currently producing similar destructive flows nearly every week due to heavy rainfall. The model and analysis resulting from this study will allow a better means to make sound predictions of hazard risk for similar flows in the future.The flow of geologic material mixed with interstitial fluid is a complex process activating physics across many length and time scales. This project will extend the TITAN2D computational environment to include fluid-solid flows, and to test these models using data collected from field studies at Ruapehu, New Zealand. Statistical analysis will probe questions of sensitivity to parameters, and of model and measurement error, and will provide a quantitative basis for prediction. A special focus of this effort is to model and calibrate the March 2007 breakout flow of the crater lake at Ruapehu Volcano in New Zealand. Working closely with colleagues at Massey University, the team will use data they collected in their study of the 2007 breakout to further refine mathematical and statistical models. The colleagues at Massey had instrumented Ruapehu, which allowed them to collect an exceptional data set from this important flow event. These data include pre- and post-event aerial LiDAR and digital photographic surveys that show postevent changes in channel morphology, sediment erosion, and redistribution. In addition, instruments for innovative applications of mechanical, electro-magnetic, vibration, and pressure detection systems provide measurements of velocities, sediment distribution, flow behavior, and erosion/deposition processes within the rapidly moving sediment-water slurries of this event. This unique dataset will enable unparalleled testing and calibration of flow models. Coupled with statistical methodology, these results will serve as a standard against which a new generation of numerical and physical mass-flow models can be calibrated and refined. Data from this project will be of particular interest to groups studying the broader-scale problem of hazards related to eruptions of similar volcanoes elsewhere. Refinement of the TITAN model to forecast smaller flow events is planned by testing it at the recurrent events (on a weekly time-frame) at Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador.
泥流是最常见的自然灾害之一;它们经常与暴雨、地震或其他异常现象有关。它们往往造成巨大的生命和财产损失。这项研究将利用2007年3月在新西兰发生的一次实际的大型火山泥流的实地研究。建议开发和测试一种计算机模型,模拟固体颗粒和水的混合物的流动。 这项研究的一个重要部分是确定未来泥石流预测的确定性或不确定性程度。实地测量的分析将为测试和改进计算机模型提供基础。将进行一系列仔细的计算机模拟,以连续再现对实际流动进行的现场测量。可以对这一过程的结果进行分析,以提高预测世界其他地方类似和较小泥石流的置信度。该项目的第二个目标将是预测厄瓜多尔一座火山的较小泥石流,由于强降雨,该火山目前几乎每周都会产生类似的破坏性泥石流。从这项研究中产生的模型和分析将允许一个更好的手段,使类似的流在未来的灾害风险的合理预测。地质材料与间隙流体混合的流动是一个复杂的过程,在许多长度和时间尺度上激活物理。该项目将扩展TITAN 2D计算环境,以包括流体-固体流动,并使用从新西兰Ruapehu的实地研究收集的数据来测试这些模型。统计分析将探讨对参数的敏感性问题,以及模型和测量误差,并将为预测提供定量基础。这项工作的一个特别重点是模型和校准2007年3月在新西兰鲁阿佩胡火山的火山口湖爆发流。该团队将与梅西大学的同事密切合作,利用他们在2007年爆发研究中收集的数据进一步完善数学和统计模型。梅西的同事们对Ruapehu进行了检测,这使他们能够从这一重要的流动事件中收集到特殊的数据集。这些数据包括事件前和事件后的航空激光雷达和数字摄影调查,显示了通道形态,沉积物侵蚀和再分布的后期变化。此外,用于机械、电磁、振动和压力检测系统的创新应用的仪器提供了对该事件中快速移动的沉积物-水泥浆内的速度、沉积物分布、流动行为和侵蚀/沉积过程的测量。这一独特的数据集将实现无与伦比的流量模型测试和校准。再加上统计方法,这些结果将作为一个标准,新一代的数值和物理质量流模型可以校准和完善。研究与其他地方类似火山爆发有关的更大规模危害问题的团体将对该项目的数据特别感兴趣。改进的TITAN模型预测较小的流量事件计划通过测试它在经常性的事件(在每周的时间范围内)在通古拉瓦火山在厄瓜多尔。

项目成果

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Michael Sheridan其他文献

Match Rates into Family Medicine among Regional Medical Campus Graduates, 2007–2009
2007-2009 年地区医学院校毕业生家庭医学的匹配率
Driving change: A partnership study protocol using shared emergency department data to reduce alcohol‐related harm
推动变革:利用共享急诊科数据减少酒精相关危害的合作研究协议
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.3
  • 作者:
    P. Miller;Nicolas Droste;D. Egerton;D. Caldicott;G. Fulde;N. Ezard;P. Preisz;Andrew Walby;Martyn Lloyd;Julian Stella;Michael Sheridan;Tim R. Baker;Michael Hall;A. Shakeshaft;A. Havard;S. Bowe;P. Staiger;C. D’Este;Chris Doran;K. Coomber;Shannon Hyder;Daniel Barker;J. Shepherd
  • 通讯作者:
    J. Shepherd
Risk Factors for Urinary Retention After Colpocleisis
阴道封闭术后尿潴留的危险因素
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    1.6
  • 作者:
    A. DiCarlo;K. Dengler;E. Welch;S. Hamade;N. Horbach;J. Welgoss;D. Mazloomdoost;Michael Sheridan;W. V. von Pechmann
  • 通讯作者:
    W. V. von Pechmann

Michael Sheridan的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Michael Sheridan', 18)}}的其他基金

U.S. Colombia Planning Workshop; Knowledge Sharing and Collaboration in Volcanic Risk Mitigation at Galeras Volcano, Narino, Colombia
美国哥伦比亚规划研讨会;
  • 批准号:
    0929511
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Consequences of Changing Topography on Pyroclastic Flow Dispersal During the Current Active Cycle of Tungurahua, Ecuador
厄瓜多尔通古拉瓦当前活动旋回期间地形变化对火山碎屑流扩散的影响
  • 批准号:
    0439093
  • 财政年份:
    2005
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
Simulation of Rock Avalanches and Pyroclastic Flows
岩石崩塌和火山碎屑流的模拟
  • 批准号:
    0087665
  • 财政年份:
    2001
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
SGER: 1998 Volcan Casita Mudflow, Nicaragua
SGER:1998 年 Volcan Casita 泥石流,尼加拉瓜
  • 批准号:
    9901694
  • 财政年份:
    1999
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Physical and Geochemical Interpretation of the 1964 Catastrophic Eruption of Shiveluch Volcano, Kamchatka
对 1964 年堪察加 Shiveluch 火山灾难性喷发的物理和地球化学解释
  • 批准号:
    9417605
  • 财政年份:
    1995
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
El Chichon Volcano Proximal Deposits: Fragmentation and Dispersal of April 4, 1982 Products
埃尔奇琼火山近端沉积物:1982 年 4 月 4 日产品的破碎和扩散
  • 批准号:
    9205780
  • 财政年份:
    1992
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Quantification, Visualization and Manipulation of Geologic Systems
地质系统的量化、可视化和操控
  • 批准号:
    9151159
  • 财政年份:
    1991
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
U.S.-Italy Cooperative Research: Volcanological and Geochemical Studies at Vulcano, Pantelleria, and Sabatini, Italy
美国-意大利合作研究:意大利武尔卡诺、潘泰莱里亚和萨巴蒂尼的火山学和地球化学研究
  • 批准号:
    9196184
  • 财政年份:
    1990
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
U.S. - Mexico Cooperative Research: Volcanic Risk Evaluation of the Colima and Popocatepetl Volcanoes
美国-墨西哥合作研究:科利马火山和波波卡特佩特尔火山的火山风险评估
  • 批准号:
    9196190
  • 财政年份:
    1990
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
U.S.-Italy Cooperative Research: Volcanological and Geochemical Studies at Vulcano, Pantelleria, and Sabatini, Italy
美国-意大利合作研究:意大利武尔卡诺、潘泰莱里亚和萨巴蒂尼的火山学和地球化学研究
  • 批准号:
    8818671
  • 财政年份:
    1989
  • 资助金额:
    $ 37.37万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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