Vulnerability and Resilience of Rangeland Vegetation as Affected by Livestock Management, Soils and Climate

东非和南非大草原的植被受到地球生物物理过程和人类影响的复杂相互作用的影响。对于这两个地区来说，一场有争议的讨论是相关的，即大规模的退化是否会威胁到这些地区生计的可持续性。牧场植被主要受环境条件（土壤和气候）和牲畜管理的影响。这些驱动因素的程度和相互作用尚未得到很好的理解，但对这些系统的恢复力和脆弱性产生了深远的影响，从而转向不利的退化或灌木侵占状态。该项目旨在分析和模拟牧场植被，以应对牧场管理，包括牲畜、土壤质量和气候条件，并评估这些条件的变化对牧场系统的恢复力和脆弱性的影响。野外测量、植被格局和动态遥感以及模拟建模将用于了解牧场植被的动态。我们将使用牧场生产美味生物量的“快速”或“状态”变量潜力、这种生产的可变性以及系统从干扰影响中恢复的潜力作为恢复力的指标。控制（或驱动）“快”变量（如管理、气候和土壤变量）的“慢”变量与其他子项目合作记录，如A1记录土壤变量。该项目的结果将显示哪些管理活动最有利于个别区域长期维持植物生产。

The vegetation of East and South African savannahs has been shaped by the complex interaction of geo-biophysical processes and human impact. For both regions a controversial discussion is pertinent, as to whether massive degradation threatens the sustainability of livelihoods in these regions. Rangeland vegetation is mainly affected by environmental conditions (soil and climate) and by livestock management. Extent and interaction of these drivers are not well understood but have profound impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of these systems to be shifted toward unfavourable degraded or bush encroached states. The project aims to analyse and model rangeland vegetation in response to range management including livestock, soil quality and climatic conditions and to assess the impacts of changes in these conditions on the resilience and vulnerability of rangeland systems. Field measurements, remote sensing of vegetation patterns and dynamics and simulation modelling will be used to understand the dynamics of rangeland vegetation. We will use the ‘fast’ or ‘state’ variables potential of pastures to produce palatable biomass, the variability of this production, and the system’s potential to recover from disturbance impact as indicators of resilience. ‘slow’ variables that control (or drive) the ‘fast’ variables such as management, climate and soil variables are recorded in cooperation with other subprojects as with A1 for soil variables. Results of the project will show which management activities are most favourable for individual regions to sustain plant production in the long term.