A Dynamic Ground-Geomagnetic Field Model for the Southern Polar Cap

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This is a proposal to develop a model of the magnetic field variability in the Antarctic region. Over a wide range of time scales (fractions of minutes to days and months) the magnetic field is determined by currents in the magnetosphere and polar ionosphere and responds to changes in the interplanetary medium. Measurements of the field are provided through magnetometers at thirteen locations on the Antarctic, and can be complemented by lower-latitude measurements in the auroral zone. Two types of inputs to the model are the solar wind/IMF parameters, representing the interplanetary state, and the Southern Polar Cap geomagnetic index (PCS), representing the regional magnetospheric state. The first will be used to develop a dynamic model, first in a linear and then a nonlinear implementation. The second will be used to map the effective area of the PCS, and examine the magnetic substructure. Results from these methodologies will be compared against results from the Northern polar cap where we continue to upgrade such modeling and forecasting approaches, in the form of conjugacy studies. Comparisons of the dynamic models in the two polar caps with MHD simulation runs will be undertaken to determine the correspondence of the 3D current structure to its geomagnetic signature on the ground, and improve the interpretation of the latter's spatial and temporal features.Part of the broader impact of this proposal is an improvement to a space weather model being developed for the Northern hemisphere. This is in part a collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute in the context of the Electric Power Research Institute's Sunburst project. In terms of education and knowledge transfer, elements from the model development will be used in lectures and seminars in the Knowledge Transfer group of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling.