Collaborative Research: Labor Mobility, Relative Wages and the Growth of the Service Sector

在过去的50年里，美国经济最引人注目的变化之一是服务业的增长。1950年，46%的工人受雇于服务业，到1970年，这一数字上升到的比例，到2000年，这一数字上升到76%。在此期间，服务业工人与货物工人的相对工资大致保持不变。1968至1991年间，服务部门相对于商品部门的平均实际时薪介于0.88至0.91之间，尽管在1990年代的S时期有一些上升趋势。除了就业方面的这些重大部门变化外，按性别和教育划分的劳动力构成也发生了显著变化。1968至2000年间，女工每年工作总时数的比例从28%稳步上升到42%。同样，在同一时期，完成学业的平均水平增加了大约两年；高中毕业生的比例从一半多一点增加到80%以上，大学毕业生的比例从10%增加到25%。虽然按行业划分的相对工资变动相对较小，但按教育程度和性别划分的变化更为明显。1980年左右，男女时薪比开始稳步上升，从大约.61上升到90年代中期的约.75。大学毕业生和高中毕业生的时薪比也从1980年的1.4稳步上升到1995年的1.75。这项提案的总体论点是，部门就业、按教育和性别分列的劳动力构成以及工资模式的这些变化都是相关的现象。文献一般都是孤立地对待这些问题的。其目标是指定和估计一个竞争性的多部门美国经济一般均衡模型，该模型结合了文献中假设的导致这些变化的需求和供给因素，以更好地理解它们的根本原因。该模型假设了现货-市场竞争均衡。它建立在先前工作的悠久传统之上。它将Heckman和Sedlacek(1985)存在技能异质性的部门选择静态模型扩展到动态选择环境，采用了Keane和Wolpin(1997)的局部均衡动态学校教育和职业选择框架，并扩展了Lee(2001)和Heckman，Lochner和Taber(1998)的一般均衡公式，以考虑部门选择和总冲击。该模型将用于解决以下问题。1.定量评估不同的需求和供给因素在服务部门增长中的相对重要性，以及观察到的部门间工资差异的持续情况。2.定量评估需求和供给因素在解释教育增加和大学工资溢价方面的相对重要性。3.定量评估需求和供给因素在解释女性就业增加和缩小性别工资差距方面的相对重要性。更广泛的影响：这项研究将通过学术期刊上的出版物和在美国经济协会和计量经济学学会年会等会议上的演讲来传播。由于这些研究成果与理解技术变革的作用和技能获得的决定因素有关，因此将具有广泛的社会兴趣和价值。

Among the most striking changes in the U.S. economy over the past 50 years has been the growth in the service sector. In 1950, 46 percent of workers were employed in the service sector, by 1970 that figure had risen to 64 percent and by 2000 to 76 percent. Over this period, the relative wage of service workers to goods workers has remained roughly constant. Between 1968 and 1991 the average real hourly wage in the service sector relative to that in the goods sector ranged from .88 to .91, although there has been some upward trend in the 1990's. In addition to these large sectoral changes in employment, the composition of the workforce by gender and education have also changed markedly. Between 1968 and 2000, the proportion of total annual hours worked supplied by female workers increased steadily from 28 to 42 percent. Similarly, over the same period the mean level of completed schooling has increased by about 2 years; the proportion of high school graduates increased from a little over a half to over 80 percent and the proportion of college graduates from 10 to 25 percent. While movements in relative wages by sector were relatively small, changes by education and by gender have been more pronounced. The female to male hourly wage ratio began a steady rise around 1980 from about .61 to about .75 in the mid-90's. The ratio of the hourly wage of college graduates to high school graduates similarly rose steadily from1.4 in 1980 to 1.75 by 1995. The general thesis of this proposal is that these changes, in sectoral employment, in the composition of the workforce by education and gender, and in the pattern of wages are all related phenomena. The literature had generally treated these in isolation. The goal is to specify and estimate a competitive multi-sector general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that incorporates the demand and supply factors postulated in the literature to have been responsible for these changes in order to understand better their fundamental causes. The model assumes a spot-market competitive equilibrium. It builds on a long tradition of prior work. It extends Heckman and Sedlacek's (1985) static model of sectoral choice in the presence of skill heterogeneity to a dynamic choice setting, adopts the partial equilibrium dynamic schooling and occupational choice framework of Keane and Wolpin (1997), and extends the general equilibrium formulations of Lee (2001) and Heckman, Lochner and Taber (1998) to allow for sectoral choice and aggregate shocks. The model will be used to address the following issues. 1. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of the separate demand and supply factors in the growth of the service sector and the observed persistence in inter-sectoral wage differentials. 2. To quantitatively assess the relative importance of demand and supply factors in explaining increased education and the college wage premium. 3 To quantitatively assess the relative importance of demand and supply factors in explaining increased female employment and the narrowing of the gender wage gap. Broader Impact: The research will be disseminated through publications in academic journals and through presentations at conferences such as the annual meetings of American Economic Association and the Econometric Society. The research findings, as they pertain to understanding the role of technical change and the determinants of skill acquisition, will be of broad societal interest and value.