Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Social Learning, Advertising, and Optimal Waiting Decisions in the Motion Picture Industry

社交学习被认为对人们是否、何时以及在什么地点看电影的决策具有影响力。与其他体验品一样，一部电影的质量很难提前观察，只有在消费后才能确定。此外，消费者的感知质量也有所不同。通过社交学习，潜在的电影消费者在做出选择之前就会接触到电影的质量。理性的消费者可能会仔细考虑，决定是立即观看这部电影，还是等待更多的口碑推荐。这项博士论文研究开发了一个观看电影的最佳等待(或停止)游戏，并衡量了在影院市场和家庭视频市场反映的社会学习程度。该项目的目标是根据2002年1月1日至2003年12月31日期间在美国全国影院上映的243部电影的总票房统计数据、家庭录像带销售数据和租赁数据来确定电影消费者的偏好。该项目具有研究社会学习如何影响电影市场的智力价值。通过该项目开发的模型可用于评估一些有趣的政策影响。例如，估计的模型有助于确定电影制片厂的最优广告策略。一旦电影制作完成，提振电影需求的唯一手段就是广告。社交学习可以放大那些受到好评的电影的广告效果。同样，如果一部电影获得负面评论，它可能会阻碍广告的感知效果。这项研究展示了广告支出的变化如何影响每部电影的初始票房表现、动态的社会学习模式，以及最终的收入来源。此外，这项研究的结果还可以用来分析随着时间的推移，广告支出的变化如何影响人们对电影购买和租赁的决定。该模型还可以用来模拟一部电影的质量如何影响影院以及家庭录像带租赁和销售市场的需求。该项目预计将产生更广泛的影响，因为它适用于许多其他行业。这是因为社交学习不仅存在于电影行业，也存在于许多其他体验品市场。例如，信息技术(IT)产品的消费者对早期采用者的评价特别敏感。像MP3播放器这样的IT产品是通过大量的研发(R&D；)投资来生产的，具有高固定成本和低边际成本的特点；本质上类似于电影。此外，由于大多数研发项目都涉及开发全新的功能，因此很难在消费前评估其价值。在这一点上，早期采用者的评论在触发随后的消费中起着决定性的作用，这可以用类似于本研究中介绍的模型的方法来解释。

Social learning is considered influential in people's decision making on whether, when, and at what venue to watch movies. Similar to other experience goods, the quality of a movie is difficult to observe in advance and is ascertained only upon consumption. Moreover, perceived quality varies by consumer. Through social learning, potential movie consumers get exposed to the quality of a movie prior to making their choices. A rational consumer may think over to decide whether to see the film immediately or to wait for more word of mouth referrals. This doctoral dissertation research develops an optimal waiting (or stopping) game of movie watching and measures the extent of social learning reflected both in the theatrical market and the home video market. The objective is to identify movie consumers' preference with the data from the aggregate box office statistics, home video sales, and rental data of 243 movies that were released in theaters nationwide in the U.S. between 1/1/2002 and 12/31/2003.This project has the intellectual merit of studying how social learning affects the motion picture marketplace. The model developed through the project can be used to assess a number of interesting policy implications. For example, the estimated model helps determine the optimal advertising strategy for movie studios. Once films are produced, the only means to boosting the movie demand is advertising. Social learning can amplify the effect of advertising for movies that have been reviewed positively. Likewise, it can impede the perceptual effect of advertising if a movie garners negative reviews. This study shows how a change in the advertising expenditure influences the initial box office performance, dynamic social learning patterns, and ultimately the revenue stream of each movie. Moreover, the result of this research can be used to analyze how the change in the advertising expenditure affects people's decisions on movie purchases and rentals over time. The model can also be used to simulate how the quality of a movie influences the demand at theaters and in the home video rental and sales markets.The project is expected to have a broader impact as it applies to numerous other industries. This is because social learning exists not only in the motion picture industry, but also in many other experience goods markets. For example, consumers of Information Technology (IT) products are particularly sensitive to early adopters' evaluation. IT products such as MPEG-1 Audio Layer 3 (MP3) players are produced through a large pipeline of Research and Development (R&D) investments and are characterized by high fixed cost and low marginal cost; intrinsically similar to movies. Furthermore, as most R&D projects involve developing brand new functions, it is difficult to evaluate their worth before consumption. In this regard, early adopters' reviews play a decisive role in triggering the subsequent consumption, which can be explained by a method analogous to the model introduced in this study.