Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Social Learning, Advertising, and Optimal Waiting Decisions in the Motion Picture Industry

社会学习被认为对人们决定是否、何时以及在什么地方看电影有影响。与其他体验商品一样，电影的质量难以提前观察，只有在消费时才能确定。此外，感知质量因消费者而异。通过社会学习，潜在的电影消费者在做出选择之前会接触到电影的质量。一个理性的消费者可能会考虑一下，决定是立即去看这部电影，还是等待更多的口碑推荐。这篇博士论文的研究开发了一个最佳的等待（或停止）看电影的游戏，并测量了戏剧市场和家庭视频市场中反映的社会学习程度。本研究以2002年1月1日至2003年12月31日在美国全国影院上映的243部电影为研究对象，通过对电影票房、家庭录像带销售和租赁数据的统计分析，研究电影消费者的电影偏好。通过该项目开发的模型可用于评估一些有趣的政策影响。例如，估计的模型有助于确定电影制片厂的最佳广告策略。一旦电影被制作出来，唯一能刺激电影需求的方法就是广告。社会学习可以放大电影广告的效果，这些电影已经得到了积极的评价。同样，如果一部电影获得了负面评价，它也会阻碍广告的感知效果。这项研究表明，广告支出的变化如何影响最初的票房表现，动态的社会学习模式，并最终影响每部电影的收入流。此外，本研究的结果可以用来分析广告支出的变化如何影响人们的电影购买和租赁的决定随着时间的推移。该模型还可用于模拟电影的质量如何影响影院和家庭视频租赁和销售市场的需求。该项目预计将产生更广泛的影响，因为它适用于许多其他行业。这是因为社会学习不仅存在于电影行业，也存在于许多其他体验商品市场。例如，信息技术产品的消费者对早期采用者的评价特别敏感。诸如MPEG-1音频层3（MP3）播放器之类的IT产品是通过大量的研发（R D）投资来生产的，其特点是固定成本高，边际成本低;本质上与电影相似。此外，由于大多数研发项目涉及开发全新的功能，因此难以在消费前评估其价值。在这方面，早期采用者的评论在触发后续消费方面起着决定性作用，这可以通过类似于本研究中介绍的模型的方法来解释。

Social learning is considered influential in people's decision making on whether, when, and at what venue to watch movies. Similar to other experience goods, the quality of a movie is difficult to observe in advance and is ascertained only upon consumption. Moreover, perceived quality varies by consumer. Through social learning, potential movie consumers get exposed to the quality of a movie prior to making their choices. A rational consumer may think over to decide whether to see the film immediately or to wait for more word of mouth referrals. This doctoral dissertation research develops an optimal waiting (or stopping) game of movie watching and measures the extent of social learning reflected both in the theatrical market and the home video market. The objective is to identify movie consumers' preference with the data from the aggregate box office statistics, home video sales, and rental data of 243 movies that were released in theaters nationwide in the U.S. between 1/1/2002 and 12/31/2003.This project has the intellectual merit of studying how social learning affects the motion picture marketplace. The model developed through the project can be used to assess a number of interesting policy implications. For example, the estimated model helps determine the optimal advertising strategy for movie studios. Once films are produced, the only means to boosting the movie demand is advertising. Social learning can amplify the effect of advertising for movies that have been reviewed positively. Likewise, it can impede the perceptual effect of advertising if a movie garners negative reviews. This study shows how a change in the advertising expenditure influences the initial box office performance, dynamic social learning patterns, and ultimately the revenue stream of each movie. Moreover, the result of this research can be used to analyze how the change in the advertising expenditure affects people's decisions on movie purchases and rentals over time. The model can also be used to simulate how the quality of a movie influences the demand at theaters and in the home video rental and sales markets.The project is expected to have a broader impact as it applies to numerous other industries. This is because social learning exists not only in the motion picture industry, but also in many other experience goods markets. For example, consumers of Information Technology (IT) products are particularly sensitive to early adopters' evaluation. IT products such as MPEG-1 Audio Layer 3 (MP3) players are produced through a large pipeline of Research and Development (R&D) investments and are characterized by high fixed cost and low marginal cost; intrinsically similar to movies. Furthermore, as most R&D projects involve developing brand new functions, it is difficult to evaluate their worth before consumption. In this regard, early adopters' reviews play a decisive role in triggering the subsequent consumption, which can be explained by a method analogous to the model introduced in this study.