Field Parameterization and Experimental Tests of the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity

生态学的一个持续挑战是将对种群动态的机械理解与社区结构的大规模聚集模式的产生联系起来，例如物种-丰度和物种-面积关系。 哈贝尔的生物多样性中性理论在海洋和非海洋系统中都表现出了这样的能力。如果该理论是正确的，那么就需要从根本上改变群落的组织方式，将物种差异（生态位变异）的作用降到最低，并强调后居动态、扩散/招募控制以及物种形成和灭绝动态的相互作用。 过去对该理论的评价依赖于询问中性理论是否能够拟合聚集模式，例如物种-丰度分布。这种方法相对较弱，涉及两个关键模型参数的调整。该项目将提供一个强有力的测试理论在岩石潮间带社区重新制定的理论，使其更容易获得经验，扩展数据集的空间使用的过渡动态，参数化模型与此数据集，然后使用几个物种删除实验，以提供一个独立的测试理论。 实验方法还将放宽中性理论的几个关键假设，包括没有招募限制或物种及其相互作用的变化和差异，并探索这些假设的后果。除了提供一个重要的综合理论的强有力的测试，研究将扩大的metacompatibility动力学，这是特别相关的了解海洋系统与海洋运输的知识，并将提供经验信息的后果慢性物种删除在近岸环境。 更广泛的影响。 本项目将培养本科生、研究生和博士后。科学家在定量和实地生态学的接口，将涉及与部落自然资源管理人员的互动，并将促进获得一个独特的长期多物种数据集，以探讨过渡为基础的方法，环境科学，可能会提供一些预测性的洞察力生物多样性丧失的后果。

A persistent challenge for ecology is to connect a mechanistic understanding of population dynamics with the generation of large-scale aggregate patterns of community structure, such as species-abundance and species-area relationships. Hubbell's Neutral Theory of Biodiversity has shown promise in its ability to do this in both marine and non-marine systems. If the theory is correct, then a radical shift is needed in the perspective of how communities are organized, with minimal role for species differences (niche variation) and an emphasis on metacommunity dynamics, dispersal/recruitment control, and the interplay of speciation and extinction dynamics. Past evaluations of the theory have depended on asking whether the neutral theory can fit aggregate patterns, such as species-abundance distributions. This approach is relatively weak, involving tuning of two critical model parameters. This project will provide a strong test of the theory in a rocky intertidal community by reformulating the theory to make it more empirically accessible, extending a dataset on the transition dynamics of space use, parameterizing the model with this dataset, and then using several species deletion experiments to provide an independent test of the theory. The experimental approach will also relax several key assumptions of the neutral theory, including no recruitment limitation or variation and differences in species and their interactions, and explore the consequences of these assumptions. Aside from providing a strong test of an important synthetic theory, the research will expand knowledge of metacommunity dynamics, which are particularly relevant for understanding marine systems with oceanic transport, and will provide empirical information on the consequences of chronic species deletion in nearshore environments. Broader Impacts. This project will train undergraduate, graduate, and post-Ph.D. scientists at the interface of quantitative and field-based ecology, will involve interaction with tribal natural resource managers, and will facilitate access to a unique long-term multi-species dataset for probing transition-based approaches to environmental science that may provide some predictive insight into the consequences of biodiversity loss.