BE/CNH: Coupling Human and Natural Influences on Coastline Evolution as Climate Changes

BE/CNH：气候变化时人类与自然对海岸线演变的影响耦合

• 批准号: 0507987
• 负责人: Brad Murray
• 金额: $ 119.81万
• 依托单位: Duke University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-09-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0507987&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Coupling; Human; Natural; Influences

Sandy coastlines such as the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts are constantly shifted and reshaped as breaking waves move sand from one location to another. Research into how such coastlines evolve over spatial scales of kilometers to hundreds of kilometers and over time scales of decades and longer has just begun. Recent work has revealed surprising long-range interactions, with changes in one location directly affecting distant parts of the coastline. Human efforts to stabilize the shoreline position -- especially through artificial sand placement or "beach nourishment" -- are becoming increasingly prevalent, and these localized manipulations likely affect how entire coastlines evolve through their long-range as well as regional effects. This research project will incorporate human manipulations into an enhanced computer model of large-scale, long-term coastline change caused by wave-driven sediment transport. Addressing the behaviors of the fully coupled human-natural system will require developing a model that represents how humans respond to coastline changes, especially local shoreline erosion. Such a model will be based on (1) data that incorporates historical beach-nourishment decisions and economic variables; (2) economic theory;( 3) information gathered during a workshop involving coastal managers, engineers, policy makers, and stakeholders; and (4) scenarios of federal beach-nourishment subsidies, future expense of procuring beach-quality sand, and policy constraints arising from ecological concerns. The resulting coupled model will allow investigations of the types of coastline behaviors to be expected in coming decades and centuries in the context of likely climate change and the consequent changes in storm and wave patterns as well as accelerated sea-level-rise. The coastline of the Carolinas will be used as an initial case study to test the model.Developing the social science component of the modeling endeavor will involve the first examination of how beach nourishment decisions are made. Experiments using the coupled human-coastline model will provide the first examination of how human-influenced coastlines evolve, and more specifically, how actions taken at one location are likely to affect other coastal communities in far-flung locations as well as nearby. The potential insights gained through this work could help coastal managers and planners avoid surprises arising from such spillover effects, which could be especially important as climate change and direct human manipulations become more important factors affecting coastline change. A dedicated website and targeted communications will facilitate dissemination of the main lessons to interested coastal planners and stakeholders. More broadly, this research will advance the embryonic science of human-landscape interactions, which are becoming ubiquitous across much of the Earth's surface. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2005 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

桑迪海岸线，如美国东南部和墨西哥湾海岸不断转移和重塑破碎波移动沙子从一个位置到另一个位置。 对这些海岸线如何在几公里到几百公里的空间尺度上以及在几十年甚至更长的时间尺度上演变的研究才刚刚开始。 最近的工作揭示了令人惊讶的长距离相互作用，一个位置的变化直接影响到海岸线的遥远部分。 人类稳定海岸线位置的努力-特别是通过人工放置沙子或“海滩营养”-正变得越来越普遍，这些局部操纵可能通过其长期和区域影响影响到整个海岸线的演变。 这项研究项目将把人为操作纳入一个由波浪驱动的沉积物运输引起的大规模、长期海岸线变化的增强型计算机模型。 解决完全耦合的人类-自然系统的行为将需要开发一个模型，代表人类如何应对海岸线的变化，特别是当地的海岸线侵蚀。 该模型将基于（1）包含历史海滩营养决策和经济变量的数据;（2）经济理论;（3）在研讨会期间收集的信息，包括沿海管理者，工程师，政策制定者和利益相关者;（4）联邦海滩营养补贴，未来采购海滩质量沙子的费用以及生态问题引起的政策约束。 由此产生的耦合模型将允许调查的类型的海岸线的行为，预计在未来几十年和几个世纪的背景下，可能的气候变化和随之而来的变化，风暴和波浪模式，以及加速海平面上升。 南卡罗来纳州的海岸线将被用作测试模型的初始案例研究。开发建模奋进的社会科学部分将涉及如何做出海滩营养决策的第一次检查。 使用耦合人类海岸线模型的实验将首次研究人类影响的海岸线如何演变，更具体地说，在一个地点采取的行动可能会影响到遥远地区和附近的其他沿海社区。 通过这项工作获得的潜在见解可以帮助沿海管理人员和规划人员避免这种溢出效应产生的意外，这可能特别重要，因为气候变化和直接人为操纵成为影响海岸线变化的更重要因素。 一个专门的网站和有针对性的交流将有助于向感兴趣的沿海规划者和利益攸关方传播主要经验教训。 更广泛地说，这项研究将推进人类与景观相互作用的胚胎科学，这在地球表面的大部分地区变得无处不在。 该项目得到了2005财政年度环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的支持，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合的动力学。