Intra-Generational Mobility and Social Inequality: Does Immigration Play a Role?

题目：代际流动与社会不平等：移民起作用了吗？摘要：近几十年来，移民流动的增加引起了重要的人口变化。美国移民的构成现在以西班牙裔为主，而且大部分移民的教育水平都很低。这些人口变化可能对美国社会产生深远的影响。这项拟议的研究考察了大都市地区移民构成的变化是否影响了经济不平等和流动性。从劳动力市场结果的社会学和经济学理论中衍生出三个假设。首先，大量受教育程度较低的新移民最有可能取代西班牙裔工人。反过来，西班牙裔工人的流离失所和相应的工资流动性下降加剧了社会的收入不平等。其次，极低的教育水平和缺乏英语水平导致具有这些特征的移民的工资和收入停滞；因此，受教育程度低、英语水平差的新移民所占比例更高，加剧了收入不平等。第三，拥有外国大学学位或西班牙裔或非白人等特征对工资和收入流动性有负面影响，因此具有这些特征的移民比例越大，收入不平等就会加剧。这项拟议的研究使用了收入和计划参与调查（SIPP）和美国人口普查的数据。SIPP提供有关个人移民、就业和教育历史的信息，以及48个月有关工作活动、工资和收入的预期数据。1990年和2000年的人口普查提供了衡量大都市地区移民构成的数据。流动性分析处理大都市居住地区背景下的个人/家庭轨迹。48个月期间的工作转移轨迹和工资/收入增长是由个人/家庭因素和个人/家庭居住的大都市地区的移民人口特征决定的。多层次的过渡和增长模型适合于这种多层次的现象。不平等分析针对的是整个收入分配，而不仅仅是平均或中位数。移民人口构成可能在中位数以外的位置产生不同的影响，例如在第一个四分位数vs.第三个四分位数或下尾vs.上尾。分位数回归模型进行全分布分析，捕捉由移民人口组成变化引起的分布形状变化。这项研究的学术价值在于它对分层、不平等和移民等方面的文献做出了实质性和方法论上的贡献。虽然过去的大多数研究都集中在对工作转移的快照分析上，但这项研究更进一步，对工作转移以及工资和收入流动性进行了纵向分析。本研究的方法解决了流动性的多层次特征和不平等的全部分配特征，允许流动性和不平等之间的联系。最后，通过观察1996-1999年SIPP全国代表性样本的数据，以及1990年和2000年的人口普查，本研究提供了新的发现和及时的政策启示。拟议的研究有四个更广泛的影响：它将(1)促进教学、培训和学习，因为研究结果将被纳入我的两门移民课程和我对博士论文候选人的建议中，并通过在研究团队中纳入一名博士研究生；(2)将调查结果发布给马里兰州新美人办公室，这是一个协助移民定居并促进移民经济、公民和政治参与的州立机构；(3)允许我在多学科和从业者会议上展示研究结果，在社会学期刊上发表，并通过新闻媒体传播研究结果；(4)为政策制定者和公众提供有关正在进行的移民辩论的信息。

Title: Intragenerational Mobility and Social Inequality: Does Immigration Play a Role?Institution: Johns Hopkins UniversityNSF program: SociologyPrinciple investigator: Lingxin HaoAbstract:In recent decades, increasing immigrant flows have given rise to important population changes. The composition of U.S. immigrants is now majority Hispanic and a large proportion of all immigrants have low education levels. These population changes could have profound effects on American society. The proposed study examines whether the variations in immigrant composition across metropolitan areas shape economic inequality and mobility. Three hypotheses are derived from sociological and economic theories on labor market outcomes. First, large numbers of new immigrants with low education levels are most likely to displace Hispanic workers. In turn, the displacement and corresponding decrease in wage mobility among Hispanic workers increase society's income inequality. Second, very low levels of education and a lack of English proficiency cause wage and income stagnation among immigrants with these traits; therefore, a greater percentage of recent immigrants with little education and poor English skills contributes to greater income inequality. Third, characteristics such as having a foreign college degree or being Hispanic or non-white have negative effects on wage and income mobility, so larger percentages of immigrants with these traits increase income inequality. The proposed study uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the U.S. Census. The SIPP provides information on individuals' histories of migration, employment and education as well as 48 months of prospective data on work activities, wages, and income. The 1990 and 2000 censuses provide data to measure immigrant composition in metropolitan areas. The mobility analyses address individual/household trajectories in the context of metropolitan areas of residence. Job displacement trajectories and wage/income growth during a 48-month period are determined by individual/household factors and immigrant population characteristics in the metropolitan area where the individual/household resides. Multi-level transition and growth models are appropriate for this multi-level phenomenon. The inequality analyses address the full income distribution rather than just the mean or median. Immigrant population composition may have a different impact at positions other than the median, such as at the first quartile vs. the third quartile or the lower tail vs. the upper tail. Quantile regression models perform full-distribution analysis, capturing the shape change in the distribution caused by variations in immigrant population composition. The study's intellectual merit comes through its substantive and methodological contributions to the literature on stratification, inequality, and immigration. While most past research has focused on snapshot analyses of job displacement, this study goes further, providing a longitudinal analysis of job displacement as well as wage and income mobility. This study's methods address the multi-level features of mobility and the full distributional features of inequality, allowing a linkage between mobility and inequality. Finally, by looking at the 1996-1999 data from the SIPP's nationally representative sample and at the 1990 and 2000 censuses, this study provides fresh findings and timely policy implications. The proposed study has four broader impacts: it will (1) promote teaching, training and learning as the findings will be integrated into my two courses on immigration and into my advising of Ph.D. dissertation candidates, and through the inclusion of a Ph.D. graduate student in the research team; (2) disseminate findings to the Maryland Office for New Americans, a state agency assisting immigrants' settlement and promoting immigrants' economic, civil and political participation; (3) allow me to present findings at multi-disciplinary and practitioner conferences, publish in sociological journals, and disseminate findings through news media; and (4) provide information for policy makers and the public regarding the ongoing debate over immigration.