China's Technology Transformation: Diffusion & Intensification of R&D Effort in China's Firms and Research Institutes

中国的技术转型：扩散

• 批准号: 0519902
• 负责人: Gary Jefferson
• 金额: $ 29.38万
• 依托单位: Brandeis University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-09-15 至 2009-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0519902&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: China; Technology; Transformation; Diffusion; &amp

This proposal builds on an initial round of NSF-sponsored research that has examined the channels through which research and development resources are contributing to technical change in China. Over the period 1995-2003, China raised its R&D/GDP ratio from 0.6 percent to 1.3 percent. This abrupt increase shares features of the historic trajectories of large OECD countries that on average in the space of a decade raised their R&D intensities from less than one percent to more than two percent. The central objective of the project is to deepen understanding of the factors that are driving the diffusion and intensification of R&D effort in China's economy. To investigate these factors, the project extends its empirical base along two dimensions: (i) for China's 22,000 large and medium-size enterprises, the National Bureau of Statistics has agreed to add the data for 2002-2006 (in addition to the data used previously for 1995-2001), and (ii) the Ministry of Science and Technology has agreed to provide its data base that covers China's approximately 4,500 research institutes for the years 1995-2003. The latter data have never before been used for systematic economic research. Together these data sets, which cover nearly three-quarters of China's total R&D spending, will allow for a comprehensive and detailed investigation of the theoretical and empirical sources of the diffusion and intensification of R&D effort. The research promises substantial intellectual merit. The project will extend and apply aspects of the body of endogenous growth literature to explain the causes of the rapid rise in R&D intensity in a significant economy - that of China. Specifically, the research will study the role of four key factors in driving China's abrupt rise in R&D intensity. These are: (i) the shift in demand toward technology intensive goods and services, (ii) investment in complements to R&D, which raise the productivity of R&D personnel, (iii) international technology diffusion, which by extending the pool of knowledge expands the capacity for imitation and innovation in China, and (iv) an emerging wage-productivity gap, which results from the rise in the productivity of R&D personnel in relation to the compensation they receive thus providing an effective subsidy to R&D investment. The project will also examine the pattern and speed of diffusion of R&D activity from China's technology intensive centers to lagging areas. The extensive panels of firm and research institute panel data will allow for using a variety of panel data techniques to address issues of selection bias, endogeneity, and time structure. By focusing on China, this research investigates a pattern of R&D intensification associated with sustained S&T takeoff in large OECD countries that may now be emerging in China, Brazil, and India, whose R&D/GDP ratios have all recently reached or exceeded one percent. This tendency for R&D spending to grow more rapidly than GDP has broad implications for these large countries, which account for 40 percent of the world's population. Research in this area that documents, analyzes, and explains patterns of R&D intensification based on rich sets of firm and research institute data will likely motivate broad intellectual interest and follow-up research internationally that focuses on the causes and consequences of abrupt increases in sectoral, regional, and national R&D effort. This work grows out of research that has been supported by the Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation. The proposed project would not be possible without the data set up, the research network, and the intellectual capital provided by the initial project. In addition to on-going collaborations with China's National Bureau of Statistics and researchers from Dartmouth College, the National University of Singapore, and Peking University, the project will be extending its research network to include the National Research Center for Science and Technology Development in China's Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Entrepreneurship Center and a team of researchers from Tsinghua University. The project promises to sustain and extend its broad impacts in the following six areas: (i) a deeper understanding of the sources of China's rapid increase in R&D intensity and its impacts on technical change and economic growth in that country that will be disseminated to a broad audience of international scholars with interests in the phenomenon of S&T takeoff and China's growing technological capabilities, (ii) an expanded appreciation by the staff and leadership in the collaborating Chinese agencies of the research and policy benefits resulting from the collection and analysis of the data they collect, (iii) introduction into the research community of data sets that are of extraordinary potential for the study of China's enterprise and research sectors, (iv) continuing improvements in these data sets in order to facilitate their usefulness for research and policy analysis, (v) training and research opportunities in the fields of R&D, technical change, and economic growth for young Chinese PhDs, scholars starting academic careers, and staff in important Chinese agencies, and (vi) collaboration between elements of the U.S. and China's research and policy establishments that share interest and responsibility for understanding and coordinating technology development in these two countries.

该提案建立在NSF资助的第一轮研究的基础上，该研究考察了研究和开发资源为中国技术变革做出贡献的渠道。从1995年到2003年，中国研发投入占国内生产总值的比重从0.6%提高到1.3%。这种突然的增长与经合组织大国的历史轨迹相同，平均在十年的时间里，它们的研发强度从不到1%提高到2%以上。该项目的中心目标是加深对中国经济中推动研发活动扩散和强化的因素的理解。为了调查这些因素，该项目沿沿着两个维度扩展其经验基础：（i）国家统计局同意增加2002-2006年中国2.2万家大中型企业的数据（除了以前使用的1995-2001年数据之外），（ii）科技部已同意提供涵盖中国约4,500个研究机构的1995-2003年数据库。后者的数据以前从未被用于系统的经济研究。这些数据集涵盖了中国近四分之三的研发总支出，将有助于对研发活动扩散和强化的理论和经验来源进行全面而详细的调查。这项研究有望带来实质性的学术价值。该项目将扩展和应用内生增长文献的各个方面，以解释一个重要经济体-中国-研发强度迅速上升的原因。具体而言，本研究将研究在推动中国R D强度急剧上升的四个关键因素中所起的作用。这些因素是：（i）需求向技术密集型产品和服务的转移;（ii）对研发的补充投资，这提高了研发人员的生产率;（iii）国际技术扩散，这通过扩大知识库，扩大了中国的模仿和创新能力;（iv）工资生产率差距的出现，这是研发人员的生产率相对于他们获得的报酬提高的结果，从而为研发投资提供了有效的补贴。该项目还将研究研发活动从中国技术密集中心向落后地区扩散的模式和速度。公司和研究机构面板数据的广泛面板将允许使用各种面板数据技术，以解决选择偏差，内隐变量和时间结构的问题。本研究以中国为研究对象，探讨了与经合组织大国持续的科技起飞相关的R D强化模式，这种模式可能正在中国、巴西和印度出现，这些国家的R D/GDP比率最近都达到或超过了1%。这种研发支出增长快于GDP的趋势对这些占世界人口40%的大国具有广泛的影响。在这一领域的研究，文件，分析，并根据丰富的企业和研究机构的数据集的R D密集模式解释可能会激发广泛的知识兴趣和后续研究国际上的重点是在部门，地区和国家的R D努力突然增加的原因和后果。这项工作源于能源部和国家科学基金会支持的研究。如果没有最初项目提供的数据、研究网络和智力资本，拟议的项目是不可能的。除了与中国国家统计局以及来自达特茅斯学院、新加坡国立大学和北京大学的研究人员正在进行的合作外，该项目还将扩大其研究网络，将中国科技部国家科技发展研究中心和国家创业中心以及清华大学的一个研究团队纳入其中。该项目有望在以下六个领域保持和扩大其广泛的影响：（i）更深入地了解中国研发强度迅速增加的根源&及其对该国技术变革和经济增长的影响，并将其传播给对&科技起飞现象和中国不断增长的技术能力感兴趣的广大国际学者，（ii）中国合作机构的工作人员和领导层对收集和分析所收集的数据所带来的研究和政策效益的进一步认识，（iii）向研究界介绍对研究中国企业和研究部门具有非凡潜力的数据集，（iv）继续改进这些数据集，以促进其对研究和政策分析的有用性，（v）&为中国年轻的博士、开始学术生涯的学者和重要的中国机构的工作人员提供研发、技术变革和经济增长领域的培训和研究机会，以及（vi）中美两国研究和政策机构之间的合作，这些机构在理解和协调两国的技术发展方面有着共同的利益和责任。