BE/MUSES: A Multiscale Statistical Framework for Assessing the Biocomplexity of Materials Use - The Case of Transportation Fuels

环境/材料使用中的生物复杂性：科学、工程和社会项目的目标是开发一个新颖和通用的统计框架，以便a)在不同的尺度上利用各种数据，b)在宏观和微观尺度上引发社会偏好、政策设计和评估，以及c)与环境生命周期评估相结合。这个框架将被用来研究运输燃料：汽油、乙醇、生物柴油和氢气的生物复杂性，并理解燃料之间转换的过渡效应。出于环境和地缘政治考虑，乙醇、生物柴油和氢气等运输燃料经常被认为是现有化石燃料的可行替代品。然而，要在这些备选方案中进行明智的选择，就需要了解它们在技术、经济、环境和社会方面的影响。这是一项具有挑战性的任务，因为这些材料的供应和交付网络复杂、替代原材料和制造路径众多、排放及其影响的多样性、不确定的数据和模型、与经济因素的相互作用以及社会偏好的影响。统计上增强的生命周期框架将帮助决策者评估工业活动对经济和生态系统的影响，以及政府政策对工业的影响。这一框架将通过国际合作应用于其他国家，其一般性使其与许多学科的决策任务相关。调查工作将提供对不同群体的社会偏好和环境素养的洞察。这将支持大学校园的政策制定和教育能力建设。将为K-12教师教育开发新的材料，以及面向技术和非技术用户的软件工具，以及全校研究生可持续发展辅修课程。

The goal of this Biocomplexity in the Environment / Materials Use: Science, Engineering and Society project is to develop a novel and general statistical framework to enable a) utilization of all kinds of data at disparate scales, b) elicitation of social preferences, policy design and evaluation at macro and micro scales, and c) integration with environmental life cycle assessment. This framework will be used to study the biocomplexity of transportation fuels : gasoline, ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen, and to understand the transitional effects of switching between fuels. Motivated by environmental and geopolitical concerns, transportation fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen are often suggested as viable alternatives to existing fossil fuels. However, sensible selection among these options requires an understanding of their technical, economic, environmental and social implications. This is a challenging task due to the complex supply and delivery networks of these materials, the many alternative raw materials and manufacturing pathways, the variety of emissions and their impacts, uncertain data and models, interaction with economic factors and the effect of social preferences. The statistically enhanced lifecycle framework will assist decision makers in evaluating the impact of industrial activities on the economy and ecosystems, and the effect of government policies on industry. This framework will be applied to other countries via international collaboration, and its general nature makes it relevant to decision-making tasks across many disciplines. Survey efforts will provide insight into social preferences and environmental literacy of various groups. This will support policy design and educational capacity building on college campuses. New material will be developed for K-12 teacher education, along with software tools for technical and non-technical users, and a campus-wide graduate sustainability minor.