BE/MUSES: A Multiscale Statistical Framework for Assessing the Biocomplexity of Materials Use - The Case of Transportation Fuels

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The goal of this Biocomplexity in the Environment / Materials Use: Science, Engineering and Society project is to develop a novel and general statistical framework to enable a) utilization of all kinds of data at disparate scales, b) elicitation of social preferences, policy design and evaluation at macro and micro scales, and c) integration with environmental life cycle assessment. This framework will be used to study the biocomplexity of transportation fuels : gasoline, ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen, and to understand the transitional effects of switching between fuels. Motivated by environmental and geopolitical concerns, transportation fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel and hydrogen are often suggested as viable alternatives to existing fossil fuels. However, sensible selection among these options requires an understanding of their technical, economic, environmental and social implications. This is a challenging task due to the complex supply and delivery networks of these materials, the many alternative raw materials and manufacturing pathways, the variety of emissions and their impacts, uncertain data and models, interaction with economic factors and the effect of social preferences. The statistically enhanced lifecycle framework will assist decision makers in evaluating the impact of industrial activities on the economy and ecosystems, and the effect of government policies on industry. This framework will be applied to other countries via international collaboration, and its general nature makes it relevant to decision-making tasks across many disciplines. Survey efforts will provide insight into social preferences and environmental literacy of various groups. This will support policy design and educational capacity building on college campuses. New material will be developed for K-12 teacher education, along with software tools for technical and non-technical users, and a campus-wide graduate sustainability minor.