DRU: How Asset Markets Assist Complex Problem Solving: Identifying The Cues Through Neurocorrelates

DRU：资产市场如何协助解决复杂问题：通过神经相关性识别线索

• 批准号: 0527491
• 负责人: Peter Bossaerts
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-09-15 至 2010-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0527491&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: DRU; How; Asset; Markets; Assist

Financial markets have long been known to play a crucial role in societal re-allocation and diffusion of risk. Recently, financial markets have been observed contributing to social cognition as well. Information is transmitted, problem solving is influenced, and individual inference is affected. The mechanics by which financial markets contribute to social cognition are not well understood. Neoclassical economic theory assumes that market participants can rationally infer information from others through transaction prices. But the very rationality on which such inference is based should make market participants wary of trading. Unfortunately, if there is no trade, there are no transaction prices, and hence, nothing is revealed. Social cognition is impossible.People trade -- in fact they trade a lot -- but we do not know why. Correlation analysis of order and trade flows and subsequent actions has not provided much insight. Nor have surveys helped much, suggesting that actions may be largely sub-conscious. If so, direct measurement of sub-conscious changes in perceived risk and reward may be a necessary first step towards resolving the trading puzzle and eventually understanding the role of asset markets in social cognition. Recently, scientists have discovered how changes in expected reward and risk induces specific responses in certain sub-cortical parts of the brain. The PIs plan to reverse this approach, exposing subjects to market activity while monitoring brain activity. The goal is to detect features in order and trade flows that trigger changes in perceived risk and reward as reflected in brain activity. The approach borrows from the neuroscience of vision, where scientists have successfully been able to identify the sources of changes in visual perception even in environments as complex as full-feature movies.

长期以来，金融市场在社会重新分配和风险扩散方面发挥着至关重要的作用。最近，金融市场也被观察到有助于社会认知。信息被传递，问题解决受到影响，个人推理受到影响。金融市场促进社会认知的机制还没有得到很好的理解。新古典经济理论假设市场参与者可以通过交易价格理性地推断他人的信息。但这种推断所基于的理性，应该让市场参与者对交易保持警惕。不幸的是，如果没有交易，就没有交易价格，因此，什么都没有透露。社会认知是不可能的。人们交易--事实上他们交易很多--但我们不知道为什么。对订单和贸易流以及后续行动的相关性分析并没有提供太多的见解。调查也没有多大帮助，表明行动可能在很大程度上是潜意识的。如果是这样，直接测量感知风险和回报的潜意识变化可能是解决交易难题并最终了解资产市场在社会认知中的作用的必要的第一步。最近，科学家们发现了预期奖励和风险的变化如何在大脑的某些皮层下区域引起特定的反应。PI计划扭转这种方法，让受试者接触市场活动，同时监测大脑活动。其目标是检测订单和交易流中的特征，这些特征触发了大脑活动中反映的感知风险和回报的变化。这种方法借鉴了视觉神经科学，科学家们已经成功地识别出视觉感知变化的来源，即使是在像全功能电影这样复杂的环境中。