SGER/GOALI/Collaborative Research: Forecasting and Proactive Management of Obsolescence for Sustainment-Dominated Systems

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This Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER)/Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI)/Collaborative Research project is to explore how industry and academia can collaborate to determine how multiple sources of resources can be combined to impact proactive obsolescence of electronic parts through forecasting and management. One of the most significant problems facing many "high-tech" sustainment-dominated systems is technology obsolescence, and no technology typifies the problem more clearly than electronic part obsolescence. It is expected that substantial savings in resources are possible if methods of forecasting through obsolescence-driven life cycle planning of products were developed and applied. This project will involve three high risk, high impact activities:1) Forecasting electronic part obsolescence by predicting the date of discontinuance under uncertainty of social, political, economic, and environmental factors.2) Determine the best mitigation approach upon obsolescence, and3) Manage the redesign of systems based upon the forecast.The broader impact is the expectation that longer term cost avoidance can be a more significant driver in economic decision-making if the forecasting lowers the uncertainty and risk. This is a high risk activity because of the inherent complexity is integrating across social and technological models for a sector such as the electronics sector.