SGER/GOALI/Collaborative Research: Forecasting and Proactive Management of Obsolescence for Sustainment-Dominated Systems

这项探索性研究小额资助(SGER)/与工业界学术联络资助机会(GOALI)/合作研究项目旨在探索工业界和学术界如何合作，以确定如何将多种资源结合起来，通过预测和管理来影响电子零件的主动报废。许多以“高科技”维护为主的系统所面临的最重要的问题之一是技术过时，而没有一种技术比电子部件过时更清楚地代表了这个问题。如果发展和应用通过产品的报废驱动的生命周期规划进行预测的方法，预计可以大量节省资源。本项目将涉及三个高风险、高影响的活动：1)在社会、政治、经济、环境等因素不确定的情况下，通过预测电子部件的停产日期来预测电子部件的报废情况。2)确定在过时时的最佳缓解方法，3)根据预测管理系统的重新设计。更广泛的影响是，如果预测降低了不确定性和风险，那么长期成本规避可以成为经济决策中更重要的驱动因素。这是一项高风险的活动，因为集成一个行业（如电子行业）的社会和技术模型具有固有的复杂性。

This Small Grant for Exploratory Research (SGER)/Grant Opportunity for Academic Liaison with Industry (GOALI)/Collaborative Research project is to explore how industry and academia can collaborate to determine how multiple sources of resources can be combined to impact proactive obsolescence of electronic parts through forecasting and management. One of the most significant problems facing many "high-tech" sustainment-dominated systems is technology obsolescence, and no technology typifies the problem more clearly than electronic part obsolescence. It is expected that substantial savings in resources are possible if methods of forecasting through obsolescence-driven life cycle planning of products were developed and applied. This project will involve three high risk, high impact activities:1) Forecasting electronic part obsolescence by predicting the date of discontinuance under uncertainty of social, political, economic, and environmental factors.2) Determine the best mitigation approach upon obsolescence, and3) Manage the redesign of systems based upon the forecast.The broader impact is the expectation that longer term cost avoidance can be a more significant driver in economic decision-making if the forecasting lowers the uncertainty and risk. This is a high risk activity because of the inherent complexity is integrating across social and technological models for a sector such as the electronics sector.