DDDAS-TMRP: Auto-Steered Information-Decision Processes for Electric System Asset Management

粗略估计，构成美国输电系统（138-765千伏）的电力变压器和断路器的数量分别为150,000和600,000；此外，还有25.4万英里的高压输电线路。据保守估计，光是这些线路（不包括土地）的总重置价值就超过1000亿美元，如果包括变压器和断路器，重置价值将增加三倍。在过去15年中，对新传输设备的投资显著下降。维持可接受的电力传输系统可靠性并以低能源价格输送电能，需要在传感、诊断、通信、数据管理、处理、算法、风险评估、决策（用于运营、维护和规划）和过程协调方面进行创新。在这些资产管理问题中，数据驱动的电力行业在传感和诊断方面取得了长足的进步。但在通信、数据管理、信息处理及相关算法、风险评估方法、决策范式等方面进展不大，在过程协调方面几乎没有进展；我们正是在这些领域提出我们的工作建议。该项目的目标是开发一种硬件软件原型，能够自动控制管理高压电力传输系统的操作、维护和规划所固有的信息决策周期。在实现这一目标的过程中，我们将实施和推进创造性方法，以解决资本密集型、地理分布的实物资产管理所固有的5个主要问题：(a)传感和通信；(b)整合数据；(c)将条件测量转变为可靠性度量；(d)发展和连接多时间尺度随机决策算法；(e)评价资料和随后部署传感器。该项目还将在代表爱荷华州电力系统的新颖模拟环境之上建立一个原型自动驾驶信息决策过程，该系统由现场装置驱动。直接影响将是处理和使用与拥有和操作传输设备相关的大量数据流的能力和信心的增强，从而产生更好的投资、维护和运营决策，最终实现更经济、更可靠的电力输送。

A rough estimate of the numbers of power transformers and circuit breakers comprising the US transmission system (138-765 kV) are 150,000 and 600,000, respectively; in addition, there are 254,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines. Total replacement value of the lines alone (excluding land) is conservatively estimated at over $100 billion dollars [1] and triples when including transformers and circuit breakers. Investment in new transmission equipment has significantly declined over the past 15 years. Maintaining acceptable electric transmission system reliability and delivering electric energy at low energy prices requires innovations in sensing, diagnostics, communications, data management, processing, algorithms, risk-assessment, decision-making (for operations, maintenance, and planning), and process coordination. Among these asset management problems, the data-driven electric power industry has made strides in sensing and diagnostics. Yet there has been less progress in communications, data management, information processing and associated algorithms, risk assessment methods, and decision-making paradigms, and progress has been almost nonexistent in process coordination; it is precisely in these areas that we propose our work. The objective of this project is to develop a hardware-software prototype capable of auto-steering the information-decision cycles inherent to managing operations, maintenance, and planning of the high-voltage electric power transmission systems. In pursuing this objective, we will implement and advance creative approaches to 5 main problems inherent to management of capital-intensive, geographically distributed physical assets: (a) Sensing and communications; (b) Integrating data;(c) Transforming condition measurements to reliability metrics; (d) Developing and linking multi-time scale stochastic decision algorithms; (e) Valuation of information and subsequent sensor deployment. The project will also build a prototype auto-steered information-decision process on top of a novel simulation environment representing the Iowa power system that is driven by, and drives, field installations. The immediate impact will be an increased ability and confidence therein to handle and use the massive data streams associated with owning and operating transmission equipment, resulting in better investment, maintenance, and operating decisions, and ultimately, more economic and more reliable electric delivery of electric power.