Katrina SGER: Data collection following Katrina: Interdependencies across time, space, and subsystems characterizing bulk energy transportation

像卡特里娜飓风这样发生在墨西哥湾沿岸地区的灾难性事件，不仅造成了巨大的人员伤亡，而且对关键的国家基础设施造成了毁灭性的影响。位于受灾地区的能源基础设施对美国能源系统的运行和性能具有根本性的重要性，美国能源系统包括电力、水、煤和天然气的生产、运输、储存和转换。卡特里娜飓风的破坏性影响暴露后，全国范围内的能源价格几乎立即上涨，能源行业对未来几个月的能源供应和价格产生了一种不确定感。由于美国能源系统的巨大复杂性，由于不同基础设施之间复杂的相互依赖和相互作用的存在，以及由于综合能源工业中与大宗能源生产、运输、转换（发电）和交付相关的复杂的人类决策顺序，目前还不清楚卡特里娜飓风将如何真正影响能源供应的经济效率和能源供应。美国能源系统由许多相互关联的能源子系统组成。原能源的三个主要子系统（煤、天然气和水）与电力有一个共同的特点，即它们可以通过运输网络从生产源头大量运输到使用地点。这些不同的运输网络是高度耦合的，主要是通过电力子系统来实现这些耦合。在正常操作条件下，很难注意到系统的相互依赖性。当一个主要的扰动袭击系统时，这些相互依赖关系很可能被揭示出来。这些事件的数据收集及其后验分析对于充分模拟能源系统的相互依赖性和动态具有很高的效用，从而认识到基本基础设施，如果中断，可能会对其他基础设施的性能产生不利影响。一个高度相互联系和相互依赖的系统的压力运行条件将导致决策过程的正常行为发生变化。研究极端运行条件下的决策过程有助于更好地理解影响系统参与者决策过程的社会和结构因素。为了更好地了解灾难性事件对能源系统的影响，了解事件如何在地理上和时间上传播，以及研究基础设施的相互依赖性，从受灾地区运营的能源行业收集数据至关重要。获取这些知识也将非常有帮助，有助于防止最有害的影响，提高对基础设施脆弱性的认识，并提高政府和行业在灾难性事件发生后的反应能力。此外，关于相互依赖的故障模式（级联、升级和共同原因故障）的细节，以及关于决策者之间的信息流的细节，都是由于其本身的性质而可能会失效的数据。因此，在信息仍然可用的时候收集所有这些重要信息是非常重要的。我们通过本提案申请资金的项目的目标是在两个互补的方面收集数据，基础设施相互依赖的故障数据和极端条件下的决策过程。本研究项目打算收集的数据的重要部分是易腐数据，因此需要在不久之前从现场收集。

Catastrophic events like hurricane Katrina in the Gulf-Coast area encompass not only a dramatic cost in terms of human lives, but also a devastating effect in critical national infrastructure. The energy infrastructure located in the affected zones has fundamental importance in terms of the operation and performance of the U.S. energy system, which comprises the production, transportation, storage, and conversion of electricity, water, coal, and gas.After the destructive effects of hurricane Katrina were revealed, there was an almost immediate nationwide increase in energy prices and an instant sense of uncertainty in the energy industry about energy availability and prices for the forthcoming months. Because of the enormous complexity of the U.S. energy system, because of the existence of complex interdependencies and interactions between the different infrastructures, and because of the complex sequence of human decision-making associated with bulk energy production, transportation, conversion (generation), and delivery in the integrated energy industry, it is certainly not clear at this point how the hurricane Katrina will really affect the energy supply in terms of economic efficiency and energy availability.The U.S. energy system is composed of many interrelated energy subsystems. Three major subsystems for raw energy (coal, gas, and water) share with electricity the common characteristic that they can be moved in bulk quantities via a transportation network from the source of their production to the site of their use. These different transportation networks are highly coupled, and it is mainly through the electricity subsystem that these couplings take place.System interdependencies are hard to notice under normal operating conditions. When a major perturbation strikes the system, these interdependencies are likely to be revealed. The collection of data of such events and its posterior analysis is of high utility to adequately model the interdependencies and dynamics of the energy system and so to recognize the essential infrastructure that, if disrupted, may adversely affect the performance of other infrastructures. Stressed operating conditions of a highly interconnected and interdependent system will result in a change in the normal behavior of the decision-making processes. The study of the decision-making processes under extreme operating conditions will help to gain better understandings of the social and structural factors affecting the decision-making processes of system participants.Data collection from energy industries operating in the affected zone is of extreme importance in order to obtain a better understanding of the impact of catastrophic events in the energy system, to appreciate how events propagate geographically and in time, and to study infrastructure interdependencies. Acquiring such knowledge will be also very helpful in order to help prevent the most harmful effects, raise awareness about infrastructure vulnerabilities, and to improve the government and industry reaction capacity in the aftermath of catastrophic events. Furthermore, details about interdependent failure modes (cascading, escalating, and common cause failures), and also about the information flows among the decision makers, are data that by their own nature may be perishable. Therefore, it is very important to collect all this vital information while the information is still available.The objective of the project for which we request funds through this proposal is data collection in two complementary fronts, infrastructure interdependence failure data and decision-making processes under extreme conditions. An important portion of the data that this research project intends to gather is perishable data, therefore there is need to collect it before long from the field.