CAREER: Development of Probabilistic Approaches for Security Assessment in Operating Electric Power Systems

9502790麦卡利这个项目的研究目标是开发一种基于风险的方法来评估电力系统运行中的安全。这一目标的动机是这样一种看法，即今天对安全评估采取的确定性办法往往会导致代价高昂的业务限制，而相应的低风险水平并不能证明这些限制是合理的。因此，使用基于风险的方法进行安全评估是有吸引力的，因为它有可能使业务做法更公平地平衡成本和安全之间的权衡，从而从使用成本较低的能源中节省大量资金。这种基于风险的方法的发展在当今的竞争环境中特别有吸引力，因为与受监管的、固定回报率的垂直综合效用的传统环境不同，竞争环境为多样化的参与者创造了冒险的动机，以实现其利润最大化。无管理的冒险行为很可能导致安全水平下降；因此，精心制定的基于风险的安全评估办法将使风险管理更加结构化。这项工作的重点将是在关键的预扰动参数空间中创建最大风险的计数，这些参数用于表征意外事件后的系统性能。将特别强调与动态系统性能相关的安全约束。这项工作将在与工业界工程师的密切合作下进行。***

9502790 McCalley The research objective of this project is to develop a risk- based approach to security assessment in electric power systems operations. This objective is motivated by a perception that today's deterministic approach to security assessment often results in costly operating restrictions that are not justified by the corresponding low level of risk. Use of a risk-based approach to security assessment is therefore attractive because it offers the potential to allow operating practices that more equitable balance the tradeoff between cost and security, resulting in substantial savings from use of less costly energy resources. Development of this risk-based approach is particularly attractive in today's competitive environment because, unlike the traditional environment of the regulated, fixed rate of return, vertically integrated utility, the competitive environment creates incentives for the multiplicity of players to take risks in order to maximize their profits. Unmanaged risk-taking may very well lead to degradation of security levels; therefore a carefully framed risk-based security assessment approach would allow more structured risk management. The focus of the work will be to create countours of maximum risk in the space of critical predisturbance parameters used to characterize system performance following a contingency. Particular emphasis will be placed on security constraints associated with dynamic system performance. This work will be carried out in a close cooperation with engineers from industry. ***