CAREER: Development of Probabilistic Approaches for Security Assessment in Operating Electric Power Systems

职业：电力系统运行安全评估概率方法的开发

• 批准号: 9502790
• 负责人: James McCalley
• 金额: $ 29万
• 依托单位: Iowa State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-07-15 至 2001-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9502790&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CAREER; Development; Probabilistic; Approaches; Security

9502790 McCalley The research objective of this project is to develop a risk- based approach to security assessment in electric power systems operations. This objective is motivated by a perception that today's deterministic approach to security assessment often results in costly operating restrictions that are not justified by the corresponding low level of risk. Use of a risk-based approach to security assessment is therefore attractive because it offers the potential to allow operating practices that more equitable balance the tradeoff between cost and security, resulting in substantial savings from use of less costly energy resources. Development of this risk-based approach is particularly attractive in today's competitive environment because, unlike the traditional environment of the regulated, fixed rate of return, vertically integrated utility, the competitive environment creates incentives for the multiplicity of players to take risks in order to maximize their profits. Unmanaged risk-taking may very well lead to degradation of security levels; therefore a carefully framed risk-based security assessment approach would allow more structured risk management. The focus of the work will be to create countours of maximum risk in the space of critical predisturbance parameters used to characterize system performance following a contingency. Particular emphasis will be placed on security constraints associated with dynamic system performance. This work will be carried out in a close cooperation with engineers from industry. ***

小行星9502790 本计画之研究目标为发展一种以风险为基础之电力系统安全评估方法。 这一目标的动机是一种看法，即今天的确定性的安全评估方法往往导致昂贵的操作限制，而相应的低风险水平是不合理的。 因此，使用基于风险的安全评估方法是有吸引力的，因为它提供了允许更公平地平衡成本和安全之间的权衡的操作做法的潜力，从而从使用成本较低的能源资源中节省大量资金。 在当今的竞争环境中，这种基于风险的方法的发展特别有吸引力，因为与受管制的、固定回报率的、纵向一体化的公用事业的传统环境不同，竞争环境为众多参与者创造了承担风险以实现利润最大化的激励。 不加管理的冒险行为很可能导致安全级别下降;因此，一个精心制定的基于风险的安全评估方法将允许更有条理的风险管理。 工作的重点将是创建轮廓的最大风险的空间中的关键predisturbance参数用于表征系统性能以下的意外事件。 将特别强调与动态系统性能相关的安全约束。 这项工作将与工业工程师密切合作进行。 ***