Cognitive Bases of Hindsight Effects

事后诸葛亮效应的认知基础

• 批准号: 0548605
• 负责人: Hal Arkes
• 金额: $ 11.44万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University Research Foundation -DO NOT USE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-07-01 至 2009-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0548605&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Cognitive; Bases; Hindsight; Effects

Hindsight bias is characterized by an exaggerated belief, following the occurrence of an event, that one could have predicted it beforehand. This 'Monday morning quarterbacking' has been found to compromise judgment in a large variety of domains including medicine, law, and accounting. For example, physicians who learn a correct diagnosis significantly exaggerate the likelihood that they could have arrived at that diagnosis. This bias interferes with learning. A physician who is able to recognize that he or she might not have made a correct diagnosis will be more willing to attend to the lessons to be learned from a difficult case.This research addresses the causes of the hindsight bias. A hypothesized cause is the increased 'fluency' of cognitive processing that occurs when a correct answer is revealed or an event that has occurred. For example, if X occurs, I spend some time thinking about X. When asked whether I would have predicted that X, Y, or Z would occur, the augmented processing done on X makes its fluency higher than that for Y or Z. To test whether heightened fluency causes hindsight bias, I manipulate fluency by some unorthodox means and then assess the magnitude of the hindsight bias. For example, in one study the visual clarity of a printed statement will be manipulated. The statement will be truthfully labeled as either 'true' or 'false.' Subjects will be asked whether they would have rated the statement as true or false if they had not been told the actual truth status. I predict that when statements are printed less clearly they will produce less of a hindsight effect, because the unclear presentation will lower the fluency with which they are processed.Another group of experiments will test whether people more knowledgeable about a topic are less able to quarantine new knowledge about that topic compared to those less knowledgeable. For example, a professor must ignore much of his or her knowledge in order to teach the novices taking a class. This is similar to the hindsight bias: in hindsight-bias situations, a person must ignore knowledge about outcomes in order to make accurate assessments. In the professor's situation, he or she must ignore content knowledge. I will examine the conditions that enable people to perform this task more or less successfully.

后见之明偏见的特征是在一件事发生后，人们夸大地认为自己可以事先预测到它。 人们发现，这种“周一早晨的四分卫”会在包括医学、法律和会计在内的许多领域损害判断力。 例如，学习正确诊断的医生大大夸大了他们可能已经得出该诊断的可能性。 这种偏见会妨碍学习。 一个能够认识到自己可能没有做出正确诊断的医生会更愿意从一个棘手的病例中吸取教训。这项研究解决了后见之明偏见的原因。 一个假设的原因是当一个正确的答案被揭示或一个事件已经发生时，认知处理的“流畅性”增加。 例如，如果X发生，我会花一些时间思考X。 当被问及我是否会预测X、Y或Z会发生时，对X进行的增强处理使其流畅性高于Y或Z。 为了测试流利程度的提高是否会导致后见之明偏差，我用一些非正统的方法来操纵流利程度，然后评估后见之明偏差的大小。 例如，在一项研究中，印刷声明的视觉清晰度将被操纵。该陈述将被如实地标记为“真”或“假”。“受试者将被问到，如果他们没有被告知真实的情况，他们是否会将陈述评为真实或虚假。 我预测，当陈述打印得不那么清晰时，它们会产生较少的后见之明效应，因为不清晰的陈述会降低处理这些陈述的流畅性。另一组实验将测试，与知识较少的人相比，对某个主题知识渊博的人是否更不能够隔离关于该主题的新知识。 例如，一个教授必须忽略他或她的大部分知识，以教新手上课。这类似于后见之明偏见：在后见之明偏见的情况下，一个人必须忽略对结果的了解，以便做出准确的评估。 在教授的情况下，他或她必须忽略内容知识。 我将研究使人们或多或少成功地完成这项任务的条件。