Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Commitment Devices and Consumption Smoothing Over Illness in Western Kenya

经济学博士论文研究：肯尼亚西部的承诺机制和消费平滑疾病

• 批准号: 0551273
• 负责人: Jonathan Robinson
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-02-01 至 2008-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0551273&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Commitment

Poor households in developing countries are subject to considerable risk. Although thePermanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) predicts that households will fully adjust consumption tochanges in permanent income and smooth consumption over changes in transitory income,evidence suggests that both of these predictions may fail (Paxson, 1992; Fafchamps, Udry, andCzukas, 1998).The goal of this project is to identify the specific factors that might prevent households fromsmoothing consumption over changes in transitory income and to evaluate the effectiveness oftwo interventions designed to facilitate consumption smoothing. This project will focusspecifically upon income shocks caused by household illness.As credit is rare in developing countries, one obvious reason that households may be unable tosmooth changes in transitory income is that they lack a secure place to save. The first goal of thisproject will therefore be to provide a formal savings account to a randomly selected subset ofdaily income earners.Even with formal savings vehicles, however, households may be unable to save transitory incomeif their preferences for consumption are time-inconsistent. The second goal of this project will beto provide one of two types of commitment savings accounts to two randomly selected treatmentgroups. The first group will be offered target accounts that will feature a strictly enforced selfchosenweekly savings goal while the second group will be offered health accounts that willencourage withdrawals for health expenditures but discourage withdrawals for all other purposesby introducing relatively large withdrawal penalties for non-health purposes and eliminating suchpenalties for health withdrawals.This project will collect information on a variety of outcomes, including the difference in savingsbetween the treatment and comparison groups, the difference in the labor supplied between thegroups, and the extent to which the accounts serve to substitute for other, costlier types of incomesmoothing (such as choosing to invest in lower-yielding but less risky assets). The mostimportant outcome, however, will be the differential responsiveness of consumption to transitoryincome between the treatment and comparison groups. As this experiment is randomized at theindividual level, the effect of the standard savings accounts can be estimated directly from thedifferential responsiveness between the standard savings and comparison groups and the effect ofthe commitment savings accounts can be estimated from the differential responsiveness betweenthe commitment savings and standard savings groups.Intellectual MeritThis project will be of academic interest for several reasons. First, it will provide experimentalevidence on the specific mechanisms by which the Permanent Income Hypothesis tends to fail.Second, it will add to the growing literature on the empirical relevance of commitment savingsaccounts. Third, it will test the responsiveness of consumption to transitory changes in incomedue to health shocks, in contrast to most studies which focus upon shocks to agricultural incomecaused by changes in rainfall.Broader ImpactThe results obtained from this research could potentially also have valuable policy implications.First, providing such accounts could represent a novel approach in designing savings accounts indeveloping countries and in developing risk-coping mechanisms for poor households. Second, tothe extent that the accounts allow households to medically treat illness and so increase their laborincome, the accounts could represent a specific mechanism for increasing income by improvinghealth.

发展中国家的贫困家庭面临着相当大的风险。尽管“永久收入假说”（PIH）预测，家庭将根据永久收入的变化充分调整消费，并在临时收入的变化上平稳消费，但有证据表明，这两种预测都可能失败（Paxson, 1992; Fafchamps, Udry, and czukas, 1998）。该项目的目标是确定可能阻止家庭平滑消费的具体因素，并评估旨在促进消费平滑的两种干预措施的有效性。该项目将特别侧重于家庭疾病造成的收入冲击。由于信贷在发展中国家很少见，一个显而易见的原因是，家庭可能无法平滑过渡收入的变化，因为他们缺乏一个安全的储蓄场所。因此，该项目的第一个目标是为随机选择的日常收入者提供一个正式的储蓄账户。然而，即使有了正式的储蓄工具，如果家庭的消费偏好与时间不一致，他们也可能无法将临时收入存起来。该项目的第二个目标是为两个随机选择的治疗组提供两种类型的承诺储蓄账户中的一种。第一组将被提供目标账户，该账户将严格执行自我选择的每周储蓄目标，而第二组将被提供健康账户，该账户将鼓励为医疗支出取款，但通过引入相对较大的非健康目的取款罚款和取消健康取款罚款来阻止所有其他目的的取款。该项目将收集有关各种结果的信息，包括实验组和对照组之间储蓄的差异，两组之间提供的劳动力的差异，以及账户在多大程度上替代了其他成本更高的收入平滑方式（例如选择投资收益率较低但风险较低的资产）。然而，最重要的结果将是实验组和对照组之间消费对短暂收入的不同反应。由于本实验在个人层面上是随机的，标准储蓄账户的效果可以直接从标准储蓄组和比较组之间的差异响应来估计，承诺储蓄账户的效果可以从承诺储蓄组和标准储蓄组之间的差异响应来估计。由于几个原因，这个项目将会引起学术上的兴趣。首先，它将为永久收入假说趋于失败的具体机制提供实验证据。其次，它将增加越来越多的关于承诺储蓄账户的实证相关性的文献。第三，它将测试消费对健康冲击造成的短暂收入变化的反应能力，而大多数研究侧重于降雨变化对农业收入造成的冲击。更广泛的影响从这项研究中获得的结果也可能具有宝贵的政策意义。首先，提供这种帐户可能是在发展中国家设计储蓄帐户和为贫困家庭制定风险应对机制的一种新方法。其次，从账户允许家庭治病从而增加劳动收入的程度来看，账户可以代表一种通过改善健康来增加收入的特定机制。