Collaborative Research: Effect of a Warming Climate on Arctic Shelf and Basin Calanus Populations: Implications for Pan-Arctic Ecosystem Dynamics

螯虾属桡足类是北极远洋生态系统的重要物种。北冰洋和边缘海域的生态系统结构受到大鲸种群动态和产量的显著影响，而大鲸种群动态和产量反过来又决定了底栖或远洋食物网的初级产量。鲫鱼是毛鳞鱼、鲱鱼、鳕鱼和鳕鱼幼虫等远洋鱼类的重要食物来源。因此，支持这些大型、富含脂肪的桡足类动物的高生物量的生态系统也有丰富的渔业（例如白令海和巴伦支海），这并不奇怪。气候变化导致的北极海洋持续变暖将对陆架和盆地生态系统产生巨大影响，可能导致卡拉努斯物种的制度转变或生物地理边界的转移，这种转变可能对陆架生态系统以及北极陆架和盆地之间的碳交换产生巨大影响。此外，北极陆架生态系统结构和功能的变化可级联至营养上层，包括具有重要商业价值的鱼类和海洋哺乳动物，从而对土著和世界人口产生重大影响。生物-物理耦合模型和数值实验将用于探索控制北冰洋和边缘海Calanus种群动态和生物地理边界的物理和生物因素，并研究各种气候变暖情景对这些系统中Calanus介导的制度转变的潜在影响。北冰洋有限体积沿海海洋模式综合物理模式系统将与基于个体的Calanus模式和4阶段的Calanus浓度模式耦合。物理模型结合了该系统的大气、冰和海洋成分，并建立了Calanus种群动态运行的环境框架。楚科奇海和巴伦支海在许多方面相似，但在其他方面又不同。分析将集中在这两个大陆架海和邻近的盆地，然而，分析的结果将适用于所有北极大陆架上的卡拉努斯动力学。数据将从广泛的物理和生物数据集整合，包括SBI计划。

Copepods of the genus Calanus are the keystone pelagic species in Arctic pelagic ecosystems. Ecosystem structure in the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas is significantly influenced by Calanus population dynamics and production that in turn determines the amount of primary production available either for benthic or pelagic food webs. Calanus are an important food source for pelagic fish species such as capelin, herring, pollock, and larval cod. Therefore, it is not surprising that ecosystems that support a high biomass of these large-bodied, lipid-rich copepods also have rich fisheries (e.g. Bering and Barents Seas). Ongoing warming of the Arctic seas due to climate change will have dramatic impacts on the shelf and basin ecosystems, potentially leading to regime shifts or shifts of biogeographic boundaries of the Calanus spp. Such shifts can have dramatic impacts both to the shelf ecosystems and to the exchange of carbon between Arctic shelves and basins. Furthermore, changes in Arctic shelf ecosystem structure and function can cascade up to upper trophic levels including commercially important fish species and marine mammals that in turn can significantly impact both indigenous and world human populations. Biological-physical coupled models and numerical experimentation will be used to explore the physical and biological factors that control Calanus population dynamics and biogeographic boundaries in the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas, and to investigate the impacts of various climate warming scenarios on the potential for Calanus mediated regime shifts in these systems. The Arctic Ocean Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model integrated physical model system will be coupled to an individually-based Calanus model and a 4-stage Calanus concentration model. The physical model incorporates the atmosphere, ice, and ocean components of the system and establishes the environmental framework in which the Calanus population dynamics operate. The Chukchi and Barents Seas are similar in many ways yet different in others. The analyses will focus on these two shelf-seas and adjacent basins, however, the results of the analyses will be applicable to Calanus dynamics on all Arctic shelves. Data will be integrated from a wide range of physical and biological data sets, including the SBI program.