Predicting Climate Change Via the Fluctuation -Dissipation Theorem: A Practical Computational Strategy for Linear Response on a Chaotic Attractor
通过涨落耗散定理预测气候变化:混沌吸引子线性响应的实用计算策略
基本信息
- 批准号:0608984
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 12.3万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2006
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2006-06-15 至 2010-05-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
The response of climate dynamics on the planetary scale to changes of various global physical parameters is an area which is being extensively studied in contemporary atmospheric and ocean science. The physical parameters controlling the planetary climate dynamics range from solar radiation, to volcanic activity, greenhouse gas, ozone, polar ice melting, and many others, which are normally modeled via direct numerical simulation for an appropriate climate model, which is typically a complex nonlinear partial differential equation or a system of such equations. In the context of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem, the main idea is to model the statistical behavior of planetary climate dynamics under the tacit assumption that the dynamics is close to its statistical equilibrium, and then to apply the fluctuation-response formula, which is the key part of the Theorem, to predict the average climate response (the response of various statistical quantities of the climate state) to small changes of the physical parameters of the climate dynamics. Unlike a straightforward numerical simulation, this approach does not require one to actually simulate each appropriate scenario of climate development for various changes of parameters (which usually poses a computational problem of substantial complexity), instead providing the whole variety of possible responses to a wide range of small parameter changes for just a single numerical simulation with a climate model. Obviously, this latter property will facilitate climate response modeling to a great extent. However, the classical Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem as formulated in statistical physics is not directly applicable to climate modeling due to the fundamental mathematical incompatibility of the statistical states of virtually all nontrivial climate models with the classical version of the Theorem. Here we propose a novel mathematical framework to perform climate response modeling with a suitably amended version of the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem, which is designed to circumvent these difficulties. However, this framework requires extensive further development of mathematical and computational approaches to become practically usable for climate response modeling. The detailed strategy for this development is set forth in the current proposal.
全球尺度气候动态对各种全球物理参数变化的反应是当代大气和海洋科学正在广泛研究的一个领域。 控制行星气候动力学的物理参数范围从太阳辐射到火山活动、温室气体、臭氧、极地冰融化和许多其他参数,这些参数通常通过直接数值模拟为适当的气候模型建模,该模型通常是复杂的非线性偏微分方程或此类方程的系统。 在波动耗散定理的背景下,主要思想是在动力学接近其统计平衡的默认假设下模拟行星气候动力学的统计行为,然后应用波动响应公式,这是该定理的关键部分,预测平均气候响应(气候状态的各种统计量的响应)对气候动力学的物理参数的微小变化。 与简单的数值模拟不同,这种方法不需要实际模拟各种参数变化的气候发展的每一个适当的情景(这通常会带来相当复杂的计算问题),而是为气候模式的单一数值模拟提供各种可能的响应。 显然,后一种特性将在很大程度上促进气候响应建模。 然而,统计物理学中阐述的经典波动-耗散定理并不直接适用于气候建模,因为几乎所有非平凡气候模型的统计状态与该定理的经典版本在数学上都不相容。 在这里,我们提出了一个新的数学框架来执行气候响应建模与适当修改版本的波动耗散定理,这是为了规避这些困难。 然而,这一框架需要广泛的数学和计算方法的进一步发展,成为实际上可用于气候响应建模。 本提案提出了这一发展的详细战略。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Rafail Abramov其他文献
Rafail Abramov的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Rafail Abramov', 18)}}的其他基金
CAREER: Predicting global climate change through fluctuation-dissipation: A practical computational strategy for complex multiscale dynamics
职业:通过波动耗散预测全球气候变化:复杂多尺度动力学的实用计算策略
- 批准号:
0845760 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 12.3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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