Community Distribution Modelling: Predicting how UK forest communities will respond to climate change.

社区分布模型：预测英国森林社区将如何应对气候变化。

• 批准号: 2843343
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2843343
• 关键词: Community; Distribution; Modelling; Predicting; how

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is causing significant shifts in the distribution of species and the communities they compose. The world's forest communities generate more than $7 trillion of global Gross Domestic Product and support 2.6 billion people, however estimates show that more than 30% of tree species are threatened with extinction with many more endangered under climate change scenarios. Predicting which forests will collapse and which communities will be most resilient under climate change is crucial for guiding adaptive forest management decisions. However, theoretical disagreement and computational challenges have hindered the development of predictive tools for understanding community formation in forests and other systems. Utilising a combination of novel techniques - including community prediction from functional traits, hierarchical Bayesian models and deep learning methods - this project aims to develop the first purpose-designed community distribution model. This model will be used to better understand the dynamics of its study system - temperate forest communities - and to make a series of predictions about community composition under climate change scenarios. These predictions will be used to guide conservation decisions aimed at stewarding the ecosystem services provided by the UK's forest communities.

快速的人为气候变化正在导致物种分布及其组成的社区的显着转变。全球森林社区产生了超过7万亿美元的全球国内生产总值，并支持26亿人，但是估计表明，在气候变化情景下，有更多濒危的树种被灭绝的树种受到灭绝的威胁。预测在气候变化下哪些森林将崩溃，哪些社区将是最有韧性的，对于指导自适应森林管理决策至关重要。但是，理论分歧和计算挑战阻碍了理解森林和其他系统中社区形成的预测工具的开发。利用新技术的结合 - 包括功能性状，等级贝叶斯模型和深度学习方法的社区预测 - 该项目旨在开发首个专门设计的社区分配模型。该模型将用于更好地理解其研究系统的动态 - 温带森林社区，并在气候变化情景下对社区组成做出一系列预测。这些预测将用于指导旨在管理英国森林社区提供的生态系统服务的保护决策。