The polar stratosphere and vertical coupling during International Polar Year

Baldwin0612289本提案是一项资金申请，以允许国际和平研究所参与加拿大SPARC-IPY(平流层过程及其在气候-国际极地年的作用)项目。加拿大SPARC-IPY项目的目标是，通过数据同化，汇集来自业务气象中心的分析、研究同化产品和气象分析推动的化学输送模式的结果，全面描绘极地平流层和中间层的化学和动力学状态；分析极地平流层和中间层内部的垂直耦合，及其与对流层和全球环流的联系。由于极地平流层与地面天气和气候密切相关，如果我们要预测气候变化的影响，了解这种垂直耦合是至关重要的。例如，南半球的臭氧消耗与南极洲的气候变化有关。我们可以预计，随着平流层气候的变化，地表气候将受到影响。但对平流层气候变化的了解如此之少，以至于我们甚至无法自信地预测极地变化的迹象。这一项目将有助于增进对这种变化的可预测性所需的了解。

Baldwin0612289This proposal is a request for funds to allow the PI's participation in the Canadian SPARC-IPY (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate -International Polar Year) project. The goal of the Canadian SPARC-IPY project is to provide a comprehensive picture of the chemical and dynamical state of the polar stratosphere and mesosphere during IPY through data assimilation, bringing together analyses from operational meteorological centres, research assimilation products, and results of chemical transport models driven by meteorological analyses; and to analyze the vertical coupling within the polar stratosphere and mesosphere, and its links to the troposphere as well as to the global circulation. The PI requests funding to investigate vertical and global coupling, andto perform process-oriented diagnostics and analysis.Because the polar stratosphere is closely coupled to surface weather and climate, understanding this vertical coupling is essential if we are to be able to predict the effects of climate variability. For example, ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere is linked to climate variations over Antarctica. We can anticipate that as the climate of the stratosphere varies, surface climate will be affected. But stratospheric climate variation is so poorly understood that we cannot predict with confidence even the sign of the polar variations. This project will contribute to the understanding needed to develop improved predictability of such variations.