Persistence of seasonal Climate Anomalies: Drivers, Mechanisms and Process-based Diagnostics
季节性气候异常的持续存在:驱动因素、机制和基于过程的诊断
基本信息
- 批准号:NE/M006123/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 141.64万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2014
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2014 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
With the ultimate goal of improving seasonal forecasts, we aim to advance mechanistic understanding of three key boundary conditions that influence European seasonal weather: North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, Arctic sea-ice and the stratosphere. Summer weather and climate will be principal focus. The project will use a mixture of state-of-the-art coupled climate model experiments, idealised dynamical frameworks and advanced statistical techniques.The work will be achieved by five interacting WorkPackages (WP): Our overall goal is to improve the skill of the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast System (GloSea5). To do this, the system must be critiqued, and deficiencies must be identified. Each WP addresses these needs in various ways.WP1. Oceanic drivers - Upper-ocean heat content which may affect the position of the storm track in summer (and related blocking and NAO);WP2. Sea ice drivers - Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness in winter/spring which may cause variations is summer rainfall in Europe;WP3. Stratospheric drivers - Influence on the troposphere from stratospheric variations (including the QBO);WP4. Hierarchy of idealised dynamical models to gain deep mechanistic understanding of how drivers can lead to persistence and seasonal anomalies;WP5. Statistical modelling of sub-seasonal space-time processes for better quantification and understanding of the role of drivers on modes of variability.
以改进季节预报为最终目标,我们的目标是推进对影响欧洲季节性天气的三个关键边界条件的机械性理解:北大西洋上层海洋热含量、北冰洋海冰和平流层。夏季天气和气候将是主要关注点。该项目将使用最先进的耦合气候模式实验、理想化的动力框架和先进的统计技术。这项工作将通过五个交互工作包(WP)来完成:我们的总体目标是提高英国气象局全球季节性预报系统(GloSea5)的技能。要做到这一点,必须对制度进行批评,必须找出不足之处。每个WP都以不同的方式满足这些需求。海洋驱动--夏季可能影响风暴路径位置的上层海洋热含量(以及相关的阻塞和NAO);WP2。海冰驱动因素--冬季/春季北极海冰的范围和厚度可能引起变化的是欧洲的夏季降雨;平流层驱动因素-平流层变化对对流层的影响(包括QBO);WP4。理想化动态模型的层次结构,以深入理解驱动因素如何导致持续性和季节性异常;wp5。对亚季节性时空过程进行统计建模,以便更好地量化和了解驱动因素对变率模式的作用。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere
- DOI:10.1029/2019jd030920
- 发表时间:2020-01-27
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.4
- 作者:Domeisen, Daniela I. V.;Butler, Amy H.;Taguchi, Masakazu
- 通讯作者:Taguchi, Masakazu
Ocean-Atmosphere State Dependence of the Atmospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss
大气对北极海冰损失的响应的海洋-大气状态依赖性
- DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0531.1
- 发表时间:2017
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.9
- 作者:Collins M
- 通讯作者:Collins M
Zonal-mean atmospheric dynamics of slowly-rotating terrestrial planets
慢速旋转类地行星的纬向平均大气动力学
- DOI:10.48550/arxiv.1806.10494
- 发表时间:2018
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Colyer G
- 通讯作者:Colyer G
Future Arctic sea ice loss reduces severity of cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes
- DOI:10.1002/2016gl068092
- 发表时间:2016-03-28
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:5.2
- 作者:Ayarzagueena, Blanca;Screen, James A.
- 通讯作者:Screen, James A.
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Mark Baldwin其他文献
Appropriate Evaluation of Primary Frequency Response and Its Applications
一次频率响应的正确评估及其应用
- DOI:
10.1109/gtd49768.2023.00049 - 发表时间:
2023 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Chengwen Zhang;Hongyu Li;Zhihao Jiang;Weikang Wang;Chujie Zeng;Chang Chen;H. Yin;Yilu Liu;Mark Baldwin - 通讯作者:
Mark Baldwin
Exploring the Relationship between UML Design Metrics for Web Applications and Maintainability
探索 Web 应用程序的 UML 设计指标与可维护性之间的关系
- DOI:
10.5381/jot.2010.9.3.a5 - 发表时间:
2010 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
E. Ghosheh;S. Black;E. Kapetanios;Mark Baldwin - 通讯作者:
Mark Baldwin
Thinking of You: Nonconscious Pursuit of Interpersonal Goals Associated with Relationship Partners Interpersonal Goals and the Mental Representation of Relationship Partners
想你:无意识地追求与关系伙伴相关的人际目标 人际目标和关系伙伴的心理表征
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2003 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Gráinne M. Fitzsimons;J. Bargh;Georgia Savannah;We;Mark Baldwin;Roy Baumeister;G. Fitzsimons;Ran Hassin;John Holmes;Aaron Kay;James Shah;Jeff Simpson;M. Fitzsimons - 通讯作者:
M. Fitzsimons
Maater: crowdsourcing to improve online journalism
Maater:通过众包改善在线新闻业
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2013 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Raymond Liaw;Ari Zilnik;Mark Baldwin;Stephanie Butler - 通讯作者:
Stephanie Butler
Co-operative Inquiry as a Tool for Professional Development
- DOI:
10.1023/a:1016392325258 - 发表时间:
2002-01-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.600
- 作者:
Mark Baldwin - 通讯作者:
Mark Baldwin
Mark Baldwin的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Mark Baldwin', 18)}}的其他基金
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Studies
平流层-对流层耦合研究
- 批准号:
0822009 - 财政年份:2008
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
The polar stratosphere and vertical coupling during International Polar Year
国际极地年期间极地平流层和垂直耦合
- 批准号:
0612289 - 财政年份:2006
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Studies
平流层-对流层耦合研究
- 批准号:
0434713 - 财政年份:2004
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling Studies
平流层-对流层耦合研究
- 批准号:
0002485 - 财政年份:2000
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Observational Studies of Stratospheric Variability and Stratosphere/Troposphere Coupling
平流层变率和平流层/对流层耦合的观测研究
- 批准号:
9708026 - 财政年份:1997
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Low-Frequency Variability of Troposphere-stratosphere Coupling
对流层-平流层耦合的低频变化
- 批准号:
9405448 - 财政年份:1994
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Solar and Quasi-decadal Modulation of the Stratospheric Circulation
平流层环流的太阳和准十年调制
- 批准号:
9303068 - 财政年份:1993
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
A Laser Manufacturing Process for Stripping of Paint Coatings
用于剥离油漆涂层的激光制造工艺
- 批准号:
9060572 - 财政年份:1991
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Investigation of the Effects of the QBO and the Solar Cycle on the Extratropical Atmosphere
QBO 和太阳周期对温带大气影响的研究
- 批准号:
9013280 - 财政年份:1990
- 资助金额:
$ 141.64万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
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