Persistence of seasonal Climate Anomalies: Drivers, Mechanisms and Process-based Diagnostics

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With the ultimate goal of improving seasonal forecasts, we aim to advance mechanistic understanding of three key boundary conditions that influence European seasonal weather: North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, Arctic sea-ice and the stratosphere. Summer weather and climate will be principal focus. The project will use a mixture of state-of-the-art coupled climate model experiments, idealised dynamical frameworks and advanced statistical techniques.The work will be achieved by five interacting WorkPackages (WP): Our overall goal is to improve the skill of the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast System (GloSea5). To do this, the system must be critiqued, and deficiencies must be identified. Each WP addresses these needs in various ways.WP1. Oceanic drivers - Upper-ocean heat content which may affect the position of the storm track in summer (and related blocking and NAO);WP2. Sea ice drivers - Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness in winter/spring which may cause variations is summer rainfall in Europe;WP3. Stratospheric drivers - Influence on the troposphere from stratospheric variations (including the QBO);WP4. Hierarchy of idealised dynamical models to gain deep mechanistic understanding of how drivers can lead to persistence and seasonal anomalies;WP5. Statistical modelling of sub-seasonal space-time processes for better quantification and understanding of the role of drivers on modes of variability.