Recent and future permafrost variability, retreat and degradation in Greenland and Alaska: An integrated approach

Romanovsky 0612533Funds用于在前所未有的空间尺度上进行气候建模。这将使私人投资机构能够解决对永久冻土研究至关重要的问题。这些措施包括准确地描绘不同的永久冻土带、活跃层深度和社会利益尺度上的季节性。该项目将纳入现有的近地表天气、气候和永久冻土观测，并在目前正在发生气候变化的地点，例如在不连续的永久冻土带，用新的有针对性的测量来补充这些观测。该项目的主要目标是：利用经过彻底验证的北极区域气候模式，以前所未有的空间分辨率为两个截然不同的永久冻土区--格陵兰西部(沿海/海洋永久冻土区)和阿拉斯加北部(大陆内陆永久冻土区)--提供目前和未来的区域气候模拟；建立一系列永久冻土和气候监测点，代表这两个区域在永久冻土边缘附近遇到的各种永久冻土类型；实施最先进的永久冻土模型，该模型将根据实地测量进行校准，并由区域气候模型的输出驱动；利用最先进的永久冻土模型对永久冻土如何响应这些气候变化模拟进行定量评估，这将使绘制目前和未来的永久冻土条件图成为可能；在格陵兰和阿拉斯加的规划以及缓解和适应气候变化的背景下对这一评估的影响进行评估；鉴于格陵兰和阿拉斯加在地理、气候学和基础设施方面的显著差异，展示这种高分辨率建模方法对格陵兰和阿拉斯加的附加值。这项跨学科研究预期的协同效应将使土木工程师、规划者和管理人员了解目前永久冻土对气候压力的敏感性，制作特定区域的风险地图，并建议这些区域内的永久冻土在不同的气候变异性情景下可能发生的变化。

Romanovsky 0612533Funds are provided for climate modeling to be performed at an unprecedented spatial scale. This will allow the PIs to address issues central to the study of permafrost. These include the accurate delineation of different zones of permafrost, active layer depth, and seasonality at scales of societal interest. The project will incorporate existing near-surface weather, climate, and permafrost observations, and supplement these with new targeted measurements at locations where climate change is presently taking place, e.g. in the discontinuous permafrost zone. The project's main objectives are: Provision of regional climate simulations for the present and future at unprecedented spatial resolution for two very distinct areas of permafrost - western Greenland (a coastal/maritime permafrost regime) and northern Alaska (a continental interior permafrost regime) - using a thoroughly validated regional climate model for the Arctic;Establishment of a series of permafrost and climate monitoring sites representative of the range of permafrost types encountered near the permafrost margin of the two regions;Implementation of a state-of-the art permafrost model to be calibrated against field measurements and to be driven by the output of the regional climate model;Development of a quantitative assessment of how permafrost responds to these climate change simulations using state-of-the-art permafrost models, which will permit mapping of the permafrost conditions for the present and future;Development of an evaluation of the implications of this assessment in the context of planning, as well as mitigation and adaptation to climate change, in Greenland and Alaska; and Demonstration of the added value of this high-resolution modeling approach for Greenland and Alaska, given the significant differences in geography, climatology and infrastructure.The climate and permafrost modeling are at the frontier of their respective disciplines. The synergies anticipated from this interdisciplinary study will inform civil engineers, planners, and managers about the present sensitivity of permafrost to climate stress, produce risk maps for specific regions, and suggest how the permafrost within these regions might change under different scenarios of climate variability.