Recent and future permafrost variability, retreat and degradation in Greenland and Alaska: An integrated approach

Romanovsky 0612533基金提供了气候模拟在一个前所未有的空间尺度上进行。 这将使PI能够解决永久冻土研究的核心问题。 这些包括在社会利益的尺度上准确描绘不同的永久冻土区、活动层深度和季节性。 该项目将纳入现有的近地表天气、气候和永久冻土观测，并在目前正在发生气候变化的地点（如不连续的永久冻土区）进行新的有针对性的测量。该项目的主要目标是：以前所未有的空间分辨率为格陵兰西部两个截然不同的永久冻土区提供当前和未来的区域气候模拟。（沿海/海洋永久冻土区）和北方阿拉斯加（大陆内部永久冻土制度）-使用经过充分验证的北极区域气候模式;建立一系列代表这两个区域永冻层边缘附近所遇到的各种永冻层类型的永冻层和气候监测点;实施最先进的永久冻土模型，根据现场测量结果进行校准，并由区域气候模型的输出驱动;利用最先进的永冻层模型，对永冻层如何对这些气候变化模拟作出反应进行定量评估，这将有助于绘制当前和未来的永冻层状况图;在格陵兰和阿拉斯加规划以及减缓和适应气候变化的背景下，对这一评估的影响进行评价;并证明这种高分辨率建模方法对格陵兰和阿拉斯加的附加值，因为地理上存在显著差异，气候和冻土模拟是各自学科的前沿。 这项跨学科研究预期的协同作用将告知土木工程师，规划师和管理人员有关永久冻土对气候压力的敏感性，为特定地区绘制风险图，并建议这些地区的永久冻土在不同的气候变化情景下可能如何变化。

Romanovsky 0612533Funds are provided for climate modeling to be performed at an unprecedented spatial scale. This will allow the PIs to address issues central to the study of permafrost. These include the accurate delineation of different zones of permafrost, active layer depth, and seasonality at scales of societal interest. The project will incorporate existing near-surface weather, climate, and permafrost observations, and supplement these with new targeted measurements at locations where climate change is presently taking place, e.g. in the discontinuous permafrost zone. The project's main objectives are: Provision of regional climate simulations for the present and future at unprecedented spatial resolution for two very distinct areas of permafrost - western Greenland (a coastal/maritime permafrost regime) and northern Alaska (a continental interior permafrost regime) - using a thoroughly validated regional climate model for the Arctic;Establishment of a series of permafrost and climate monitoring sites representative of the range of permafrost types encountered near the permafrost margin of the two regions;Implementation of a state-of-the art permafrost model to be calibrated against field measurements and to be driven by the output of the regional climate model;Development of a quantitative assessment of how permafrost responds to these climate change simulations using state-of-the-art permafrost models, which will permit mapping of the permafrost conditions for the present and future;Development of an evaluation of the implications of this assessment in the context of planning, as well as mitigation and adaptation to climate change, in Greenland and Alaska; and Demonstration of the added value of this high-resolution modeling approach for Greenland and Alaska, given the significant differences in geography, climatology and infrastructure.The climate and permafrost modeling are at the frontier of their respective disciplines. The synergies anticipated from this interdisciplinary study will inform civil engineers, planners, and managers about the present sensitivity of permafrost to climate stress, produce risk maps for specific regions, and suggest how the permafrost within these regions might change under different scenarios of climate variability.