QEIB: Extinction, Dynamics, and Optimal Life Histories in Random Environments

许多现实世界人口的动态、演变和管理发生在不可预测的环境条件下。本提案旨在开发和应用工具来分析受干扰的种群的增长率和灭绝概率，这些干扰随时间相关。特别是，该研究将寻求适用于广泛的生物和环境的可靠的定性和定量见解。这项建议的一个中心内容是确立和应用这样一种观点，即了解和管理变化是人口管理政策的一个重要内容。例如，当降水随时间显著变化时，考虑对其他用户（农民、渔业、电力）的供水管理。水对鱼类种群的生物效应既取决于平均流量水平，也取决于连续几年的流量高低。与这项研究一起开发的工具将能够检查人口增长和持久性如何对水分配随年降水量变化的政策作出反应。这些方法可用于详细检查太平洋鲑鱼的具体情况，这是一个受到相当大压力的管理种群的重要和非常明显的例子。

The dynamics, evolution and management of many real-world populations take place in environmental conditions that vary unpredictably over time. This proposal aims to develop and apply tools to analyze the growth rate and extinction probability of populations that are subject to disturbances that are correlated over time. In particular, the research will seek reliable qualitative and quantitative insights applicable to a wide range of organisms and environments. A central element of this proposal is to establish and apply the perspective that understanding and managing variability is an important element of population management policies. As an example, consider the management of water supply to alternative users (farmers, fisheries, power) when precipitation varies significantly over time. The biological effect of water on fish populations depends both on the average level of flow and on the lows and highs of flows across successive years. The tools developed with this research will enable examination of how population growth and persistence respond to policies in which water allocation changes with annual precipitation. These methods can be used to examine in detail the specific case of the Pacific salmon, an important and highly visible example of a managed population that is under considerable pressure.