QEIB: Extinction, Dynamics, and Optimal Life Histories in Random Environments

许多真实世界人口的动态、进化和管理发生在随时间变化不可预测的环境条件下。这项建议旨在开发和应用工具来分析受随时间相关的干扰的种群的增长率和灭绝概率。特别是，这项研究将寻求适用于广泛生物体和环境的可靠的定性和定量见解。这项建议的一个核心要素是确立和应用这样一种观点，即了解和管理可变性是人口管理政策的一个重要要素。例如，当降雨量随时间变化很大时，考虑对替代用户(农民、渔业、电力)的供水管理。水对鱼类种群的生物影响既取决于平均流量水平，也取决于连续几年的流量高低。通过这项研究开发的工具将能够审查人口增长和持久性如何应对水分配随年降雨量变化的政策。这些方法可以用来详细研究太平洋鲑鱼的具体情况，这是一个重要的、非常明显的例子，说明受管理的种群面临着相当大的压力。

The dynamics, evolution and management of many real-world populations take place in environmental conditions that vary unpredictably over time. This proposal aims to develop and apply tools to analyze the growth rate and extinction probability of populations that are subject to disturbances that are correlated over time. In particular, the research will seek reliable qualitative and quantitative insights applicable to a wide range of organisms and environments. A central element of this proposal is to establish and apply the perspective that understanding and managing variability is an important element of population management policies. As an example, consider the management of water supply to alternative users (farmers, fisheries, power) when precipitation varies significantly over time. The biological effect of water on fish populations depends both on the average level of flow and on the lows and highs of flows across successive years. The tools developed with this research will enable examination of how population growth and persistence respond to policies in which water allocation changes with annual precipitation. These methods can be used to examine in detail the specific case of the Pacific salmon, an important and highly visible example of a managed population that is under considerable pressure.