Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Local-Level Policy Learning in Response to Extreme Flood Events in the Central Danube River Basin

多瑙河流域在过去十年中多次发生洪水，造成严重的经济和生态破坏。匈牙利位于多瑙河流域的中部地区，历史上洪水风险很高，最近极端洪水有所增加。虽然多瑙河流域的国际和国家机构向地方机构提供了应对自然灾害的指导，但与防洪和预防有关的环境政策和环境政策往往是在地方和区域一级制定和执行的。多瑙河流域中部地方一级机构的环境政策差别很大。本论文的研究重点是多瑙河流域洪水的局部响应分析。 对极端事件的成功应对往往反映了政策学习，以及对新信息和新环境的信念、态度、行为和目标的演变。为了了解促进政策学习的因素，本研究探讨了以下问题：（1）哪些因素与观察到的政策变化和学习有关的地方一级的洪水缓解和预防？(2)科学和技术信息在多大程度上影响了政策学习？(3)不同的专业化论坛和群体决策过程，如流域伙伴关系和河流流域管理决策过程，以何种方式影响政策学习？我将研究对多瑙河两个次流域严重洪水的反应：多瑙河中部的蒂萨和潘诺尼亚，这些次流域在过去十年中经历了该地区最严重的洪水。该研究包括两个阶段：一个大的N，在流域的城市横断面调查研究（1）过去的洪水的程度，（2）政策变化和学习，以应对洪水，（3）科学和技术信息和群体决策过程的作用影响政策学习;和，在三个较小的子集水区的深入案例研究。

The Danube River basin has had numerous floods over the past decade, causing high levels of economic and ecological damage. Hungary, situated in the central region of the Danube River basin, historically has had a high level of flood risk exposure and has recently experienced an increase in extreme floods. While international and national institutions in the Danube basin have provided guidance to local institutions in response to natural disasters, environmental policies related to flood protection, prevention, and environmental policies are frequently developed and implemented at the local and regional levels. Environmental policies across local level institutions in the central Danube River basin vary greatly. This dissertation research focuses on the analysis of local level response to floods in the Danube River basin. Successful responses to extreme events often reflect policy learning, the evolution of beliefs, attitudes, behaviors, and goals in response to new information and. To understand factors that promote policy learning, this research examines the following questions: (1) What factors are associated with observed variations in policy change and learning related to flood mitigation and prevention at the local level? (2) To what extent has scientific and technical information affected policy learning? (3) In what ways do different professionalized fora and group decision making processes, such as watershed partnerships and river basin management decision processes, influence policy learning? I will examine responses to severe floods in two Danube River subbasins: the Tisza and the Pannonian Central Danube, subbasins that have experienced some of the most extreme floods in the region over the past decade. The research includes two phases: a large N, cross-sectional survey of cities in the basins examining (1) the extent of past flooding, (2) policy change and learning in response to flooding, and (3) the roles of scientific and technical information and group decision processes influence policy learning; and, in depth case-studies of three smaller sub-catchment areas.