Sticky Borders, Pass Through, and the Terms of Trade

提案编号：0617256机构：美国国家经济研究局NSF计划：经济学首席研究员：Gopinath，吉塔标题：粘性边界，通过，和贸易条件摘要什么是汇率政策对一个国家的出口竞争力的影响？一个国家的价格变化在多大程度上可以传递给贸易伙伴？ 这项研究利用了一个关于美国进出口商品微观价格的新数据集，揭示了国际宏观经济学中的三个重要问题：（i）价格的粘性和在码头上贸易货物价格粘性的货币，（ii）近十年来世界范围内记录在案的令人困惑的汇率传递下降，及（iii）衡量贸易质量增长及其对贸易条件的影响。 大多数试图研究这些问题的研究都使用了国家或行业层面的综合数据。 然而，要正确理解这些问题，我们需要能够与宏观经济联系起来的微观数据。 PI获得的独特数据允许他这样做。 PI将开发理论模型，并使用可用的唯一数据进行估计。 特别是，贸易条件的分解可以揭示贸易条件随国家增长而变化的情况，其研究结果对于从理论上理解货币政策和汇率政策对国内外宏观经济的影响具有重要意义。它将有助于指导我们预测如何通过贸易商品的价格调整来解决全球贸易失衡。第二，它将对从事贸易的企业的价格制定的微观经济理论产生影响，特别是对于像美国这样的大型经济体，该研究将揭示大企业在贸易中制定价格的特殊结构和市场力量，以及谁承担这种国际交易中的汇率风险。 这一结果的结果也将为政策问题提供信息，例如中国是否会因贸易条件的变化而经历增长放缓。

Proposal No: 0617256 Institution: NBER NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Gopinath, Gita Title: Sticky Borders, Pass Through, and the Terms of Trade ABSTRACT What is the effect of exchange rate policy on the export competitiveness of a country? To what extend can price changes in one country be passed through to a trading partner? This research exploits a novel dataset on micro level prices of imported and exported goods for the U.S. to shed light on three important questions in international macroeconomics: (i) stickiness of prices and the currency in which prices are sticky at the dock for traded goods, (ii) the puzzling decline of exchange rate pass-through that has been documented world wide in the recent decade, and (iii) measurement of the quality growth in trade and its impact on the terms of trade. Most research that attempt to look at these questions has used aggregate country or industry level data. However, to properly understand these questions, one need micro data that can be linked back to the macroeconomy. The unique data the PI has obtained allows him to do that. The PI will develop theoretical models that will be estimated with the unique data available. In particular, the decomposition of the terms of trade throws light on the evolution of the terms of trade as a country grows.The result of this research will have important implications for our theoretical understanding of the macroeconomic impact of monetary and exchange rate policy, both domestically and internationally. It will help guide our predictions of how global trade imbalances will be resolved through the price adjustments of traded goods. Secondly, it will have implications for the microeconomic theory of price setting of firms engaged in trade, particularly for a large economy such as the U.S. The research will shed light on the particular structure and market power of large firms in setting prices in trade as well as who bears the exchange rate risk in such international transactions. The result of this result will also inform policy questions such as whether China will experience a slow down in its growth because of its terms of trade movement.