Trade Adjustment in Large Crises

智力价值：近几十年来，贸易在全球收入中的份额大幅增加，各国越来越依赖国际贸易来增加收入。许多研究都考察了贸易进口在很长一段时间内--通常是几十年或更长时间--对增长和生产力的影响。然而，贸易流量变化的影响往往要剧烈得多。例如，在1990年代末的亚洲危机和2002年的阿根廷危机期间，甚至在最近的2008-2009年全球经济衰退期间，贸易流动都出现了突然和戏剧性的逆转。人们对公司和产品层面的贸易调整机制知之甚少，宏观经济表现与这些时期贸易减少之间的直接联系在很大程度上仍未得到探索。国际货币基金组织提议使用新颖的交易级微观数据，从多个维度对危机期间外部部门的调整进行最详细的研究。国际刑警组织已经获得了阿根廷1996-2008年期间所有贸易交易的海关数据，并建议扩大他们的研究范围，将其他国家包括在内。贸易调整的经验特征将使他们能够评估短期贸易调整在消费者福利和产出生产率方面的代价有多大。在现有的文献中，理论渠道是明确的，但经验证据有限。他们的初步发现之一是，广泛的利润率在危机期间的调整中扮演着很小的角色。广泛利润率被定义为进口公司或进口产品类别的进出。然而，在公司层面，广泛的利润率发挥着重要作用，因为公司放弃了占其先前进口的很大份额的产品。初步计算表明，企业无法像危机前那样购买投入品，至少会在2-3年内对它们的生产率产生重大影响。以前的研究没有发现这一点，因为没有人在如此严重的危机中检查过如此细分的数据水平。广泛影响：国际和平研究所建议提高我们对各国进出口如何机械调整以及这种调整对经济的影响的理解。特别是，哪些贸易利润率调整最大？在数量上重要的调整是发生在公司内部和详细的产品类别内，还是公司的进出和产品的进出发挥了重要作用？贸易产品的质量会发生变化吗？中间产品和最终产品之间的调整是否不同？跨国公司的反应与本土公司的反应有何不同？对于与发达国家或发展中国家的贸易流动，这些应对措施是否有所不同？更清楚地描述和更深入地了解国际贸易冲击对一国生产率和福利的影响，特别是在危机期间，这一点很重要，因为这将为一国对贸易政策和汇率制度的最佳选择提供信息。此外，它可能会更好地理解国际冲击的跨国和跨部门传播。鉴于最近提醒人们注意到可能出现的大规模跨国波动，这种理解对于合理的政策决策、评估潜在的宏观经济冲击的影响以及理解开放经济体衰退中福利下降的驱动因素非常重要。

Intellectual Merit: Trade as a share of global income has increased dramatically in recent decades, and countries increasingly rely on international trade to grow their incomes. Many studies have examined the import of trade for growth and productivity over long periods of time - often decades or longer. Frequently, however, the impact of changes in trade flows is much more acute. For example, there were sudden and dramatic reversals in trade flows during the Asian crisis in the late 1990s, the Argentine crisis of 2002, and even during the recent global recession of 2008-2009. Little is known about the mechanics of trade adjustment at the firm and product level, and direct links between macroeconomic performance and the reductions in trade during these episodes remain largely unexplored. The PI's propose to use novel transaction-level micro-data that allows - along several dimensions - the most detailed study of the adjustment of the external sector during a crisis episode. The PI's have obtained customs data for all trade transactions for Argentina during 1996-2008 and propose to expand their study to include other countries. An empirical characterization of trade adjustment will allow them to evaluate how costly short-run trade adjustments are in terms of consumer welfare and output productivity. In existing literature the theoretical channels are clear but the empirical evidence is limited. One of their preliminary findings is that the extensive margin, defined as the entry and exit of importing firms or imported product categories, plays a small role in adjustment during the crisis. However, at the firm level, the extensive margin plays an important role as firms drop products that constituted a significant share of their previous imports. Preliminary calculations suggest that the inability of firms to purchase inputs as they did before the crisis has a meaningful impact on their productivity for at least 2-3 years. This has not been uncovered by previous studies because none have examined such disaggregated levels of data through such an acute crisis.Broader Impact: The PI's propose to improve our understanding of mechanically how countries' imports and exports adjust and the impact of such adjustment on the economy. In particular, which margins of trade adjust the most? Do the quantitatively important adjustments occur within firms and within detailed product categories, or do firm entry and exit and product entry and exit play an important role? Does the quality of products traded change? Is adjustment different between intermediate and final goods? How does the response of multinationals differ from that of local firms? Are these responses different for trade flows with developed or developing countries? A clearer description and deeper un¬derstanding of the impact of shocks to international trade on a country's productivity and welfare, particularly during crises, is important because it will inform a country's optimal choice of trade policies and exchange rate regimes. Further, it may give a better sense for understanding the cross-country and cross-sector propagation of international shocks. Given the recent reminder of the potential for large cross-country volatility, this understanding is important for sound policy decisions, to evaluate the impact of potential macroeconomic shocks, and to understand the drivers of welfare declines in recessions in open economies.