Macro Perspectives on the Labor Market

劳动力市场的宏观视角

• 批准号: 0617876
• 负责人: Iourii Manovskii
• 金额: $ 22.5万
• 依托单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-07-01 至 2009-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0617876&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Macro; Perspectives; Labor; Market

Proposal No: 0617876 Institution: University of Pennsylvania NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Manovskii, Iourii Title: Macro Perspectives on the Labor MarketABSTRACTThere has been a significant flattening (slower growth) of life-cycle earnings profiles for successive cohorts of American men entering the labor market since the late 1960s and a significant upward shift in the profiles of occupational mobility for more recent cohorts. Despite the importance of this observation for public as policy as well as for household savings and labor supply decisions, the phenomenon has not been seriously studied. Using a novel stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model, this research will measure what fraction of the change in the life-cycle profiles of earnings and earnings inequality is accounted for by the economic forces that drive the increase in occupational mobility. The key idea of the theory is that a substantial fraction of the rise of average life-cycle profile of earnings is explained by rising average occupational experience over the life-cycle of a cohort. Preliminary results suggest that an exogenous increase in occupational mobility leads to lower average occupational experience over the cohorts life-cycle and a flatter life-cycle earnings profile. This mechanism remains important in an equilibrium model that allows for endogenous occupational mobility. The data for this research will come from the Social Security Administration. The (i) discovery of a new fact that uniquely characterizes changes in the US labor market over the last three decades, (ii) an innovative research strategy of studying cohort based life-cycle profiles of earnings, while most of the literature has focused on investigating changes in cross-sectional profiles, (iii) providing a theory that simultaneously accounts for three important changes in the labor market over the last three decades: a sharp increase in the within-group earnings dispersion, a significant flattening of the life-cycle profiles of earnings, and a substantial increase in occupational mobility, characterize the scientific merit of this research project. This research will provide a new empirical evidence important for distinguishing between various theories of changes in the wage structure as well as develop and calibrate a new and innovative model of the labor market. The results of this research can be used to study the effectiveness of government policies to aid workers adapt better to labor market changes. The research will inform the debate on the causes of the increase in wage dispersion. The research project will substantially advance our understanding of the labor market and public policies towards the labor market.

提案编号：0617876机构：宾夕法尼亚大学NSF项目：经济学首席研究员：Manovskii，Iourii职称：劳动力市场的宏观前景摘要劳动力市场已经出现了显著的扁平化（慢增长）的生活-自20世纪60年代末以来，连续几批进入劳动力市场的美国男性的周期收入概况，以及职业流动性概况的显著上升，最近的同伙尽管这一观察对于公共政策以及家庭储蓄和劳动力供应决策的重要性，但这一现象尚未得到认真研究。 使用一个新的随机动态一般均衡模型，本研究将衡量什么比例的收入和收入不平等的生命周期配置文件的变化占的经济力量，推动职业流动性的增加。该理论的关键思想是，平均生命周期收入的增长很大一部分可以通过群体生命周期内平均职业经验的增长来解释。 初步结果表明，外源性增加职业流动性导致较低的平均职业经验，在队列的生命周期和平坦的生命周期的收入概况。这一机制在允许内生职业流动的均衡模型中仍然很重要。这项研究的数据将来自社会保障管理局。 （i）发现了一个新的事实，独特地描述了过去三十年来美国劳动力市场的变化，（ii）研究基于队列的收入生命周期概况的创新研究策略，而大多数文献都集中在调查横截面概况的变化，（iii）提供了一个理论，同时解释了过去三十年来劳动力市场的三个重要变化：这一研究项目的科学价值体现在：群体内收入差距的急剧扩大、收入生命周期分布的显著平坦化以及职业流动性的大幅增加。 这项研究将为区分工资结构变化的各种理论以及开发和校准新的创新劳动力市场模型提供新的实证证据。 这项研究的结果可以用来研究政府政策的有效性，以帮助工人更好地适应劳动力市场的变化。这项研究将为关于工资差距扩大的原因的辩论提供信息。 该研究项目将大大提高我们对劳动力市场和劳动力市场公共政策的理解。